Rosario Central vs Independiente Rivadavia Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Rosario Central 5-0 Independiente Rivadavia.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Rosario Central, 29% draw, 27% Independiente Rivadavia — fair odds of 2.27, 3.45 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Liga Profesional Argentina predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Rosario Central at 44% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Rosario Central vs Independiente Rivadavia
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 23J. LedesmaG
- 32E. CoronelD
- 46Ignacio OvandoD
- 13G. ÁvilaD
- 3A. SandezD
- 5F. IbarraM
- 20V. PizarroM
- 31F. NavarroM
- 11Á. Di MaríaM
- 8J. CampazM
- 22E. CopettiF
- 2S. ZarachoD
- 33A. SotoD
- 9M. RubenF
- 15F. MalloD
- 6J. KomarD
- 24Juan Valentín GiménezD
- 18J. FernándezF
- 10F. CerviM
- 16T. BadaloniF
- 30Nicolás BolcatoG
- 14L. GómezD
- 2L. CostaD
- 42S. StuderD
- 3J. ElordiD
- 5T. BottariM
- 25J. FlorentínM
- 11G. RíosM
- 77L. SequeiraM
- 10M. FernándezM
- 9A. ArceF
- 7V. RamisF
- 13A. OsellaD
- 80M. RealiF
- 43F. SartoriF
- 28A. VigoD
- 40I. VillalbaD
- 19R. AtencioF
- 8L. BuccaM
- 27D. CregoM
Form going into Rosario Central vs Independiente Rivadavia
Rosario Central
- D1-1away to Banfield6 October 2026
- W1-0Argentinos Juniors20 September 2026
- W1-0away to Tigre13 September 2026
- D1-1Newell's Old Boys6 September 2026
Independiente Rivadavia
- D1-1Gimnasia La Plata3 October 2026
- W1-0away to Barracas Central21 September 2026
- W4-3Aldosivi12 September 2026
- L1-3away to River Plate6 September 2026
What these results say
- Rosario Central went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Rosario Central scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Rosario Central had two goals or fewer.
- Independiente Rivadavia scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Independiente Rivadavia conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Both sides scored in 3 of these 4 matches for Independiente Rivadavia.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rosario Central | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 9 | +8 | 22 |
| 8 | Independiente Rivadavia | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Rosario Central vs Independiente Rivadavia
- 11 October 2026Rosario Central 5–0 Independiente RivadaviaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 23 March 2026Independiente Rivadavia 2–0 Rosario CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
- 5 November 2024Independiente Rivadavia 1–1 Rosario CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
- 8 February 2024Rosario Central 1–0 Independiente RivadaviaCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 8 April 2013Independiente Rivadavia 1–3 Rosario CentralPrimera Nacional
- 8 October 2012Rosario Central 2–2 Independiente RivadaviaPrimera Nacional
The full Rosario Central vs Independiente Rivadavia record →
Leading scorers: Rosario Central and Independiente Rivadavia
Rosario Central
GoalsAssists
- Á. Di María104
Independiente Rivadavia
GoalsAssists
- A. Arce91
- F. Sartori80
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.