San Lorenzo vs Deportivo Riestra Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: San Lorenzo 1-0 Deportivo Riestra.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% San Lorenzo, 40% draw, 27% Deportivo Riestra — fair odds of 3.03, 2.50 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts the draw at 40% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — San Lorenzo vs Deportivo Riestra
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 25J. DevecchiG
- 35A. CordobaD
- 2D. ArboledaD
- 19E. AmorD
- 24N. TripichioM
- 62G. AlassiaM
- 10Facundo GulliM
- 3T. RodríguezM
- 38F. FaríasM
- 29R. AuzmendiF
- 9A. CuelloF
- 42F. LorenzónD
- 14A. LadstatterF
- 36Daniel HerreraD
- 34Maximo Atrio
- 39Elián Uriel OjedaM
- 13Juan RattalinoM
- 27M. RíoM
- 44Enzo Alan SalasF
- 6M. de RitisD
- 1I. ArceG
- 36M. BracamonteD
- 5P. RamírezD
- 22C. PazD
- 19J. RandazzoD
- 15N. SansotreD
- 8M. CélizM
- 14P. MonjeM
- 10B. SánchezM
- 11A. DíazF
- 7Antony Daniel Alonso EspinozaF
- 17Á. AlmadaM
- 23M. ArzamendiaG
- 9N. BenegasF
- 13R. GalloD
- 6I. GariglioD
- 27J. GoitíaD
- 21T. GonzálezF
- 29M. GranerosF
- 20T. LauroM
Form going into San Lorenzo vs Deportivo Riestra
San Lorenzo
- L0-3away to Defensa Y Justicia3 October 2026
- L0-2Boca Juniors20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Independiente13 September 2026
- W1-0Talleres Cordoba5 September 2026
Deportivo Riestra
- D1-1Central Cordoba de Santiago5 October 2026
- D0-0away to Gimnasia Mendoza19 September 2026
- L0-3Lanus14 September 2026
- D1-1away to Platense4 September 2026
What these results say
- San Lorenzo failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- San Lorenzo conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for San Lorenzo had two goals or fewer.
- Deportivo Riestra did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Deportivo Riestra conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Deportivo Riestra had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | San Lorenzo | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 14 |
| 12 | Deportivo Riestra | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: San Lorenzo vs Deportivo Riestra
- 11 October 2026San Lorenzo 1–0 Deportivo RiestraLiga Profesional Argentina
- 17 July 2026San Lorenzo 1–1 Deportivo RiestraCopa Argentina
- 25 March 2026Deportivo Riestra 1–1 San LorenzoLiga Profesional Argentina
- 31 October 2025San Lorenzo 1–0 Deportivo RiestraLiga Profesional Argentina
- 20 April 2025Deportivo Riestra 0–0 San LorenzoLiga Profesional Argentina
- 12 May 2024Deportivo Riestra 1–0 San LorenzoLiga Profesional Argentina
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.