SHANGHAI SIPG
vs
Chengdu Better City
Super League prediction
Our model says: SHANGHAI SIPG 2–1 Chengdu Better City
The model makes it 44% SHANGHAI SIPG, 26% draw, 30% Chengdu Better City — fair odds of 2.27, 3.85 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: SHANGHAI SIPG 1.70, Chengdu Better City 1.29.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- SHANGHAI SIPG are 7th on 36 points from 27 games; Chengdu Better City are top on 52 points from 27 games — Super League.
- SHANGHAI SIPG are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 4-2 win away to Hangzhou Greentown.
- Chengdu Better City have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Tianjin Teda.
- Last 6 meetings: Chengdu Better City 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 19 May 2026, ended Chengdu Better City 0–1 SHANGHAI SIPG.
More Chinese Super League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Chengdu Better City
Has the model earned this number?
It puts SHANGHAI SIPG at 44% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into SHANGHAI SIPG vs Chengdu Better City
SHANGHAI SIPG
- W4-2away to Hangzhou Greentown9 October 2026
- D0-0Beijing Guoan5 September 2026
- W1-0away to Sichuan Jiuniu28 August 2026
- W2-1Qingdao Jonoon23 August 2026
- D1-1Dalian Zhixing19 August 2026
Chengdu Better City
- L0-1Tianjin Teda10 October 2026
- D0-0away to Henan Jianye6 September 2026
- W2-1Shenyang Urban29 August 2026
- L4-5Shanghai Shenhua22 August 2026
- W3-2away to Hangzhou Greentown15 August 2026
What these results say
- SHANGHAI SIPG went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- SHANGHAI SIPG scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Chengdu Better City conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | SHANGHAI SIPG | 27 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 44 | 35 | +9 | 36 |
| 1 | Chengdu Better City | 27 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 51 | 31 | +20 | 52 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
SHANGHAI SIPG
Chance to finish in the top four · 17% today
From our Super League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Chengdu Better City
- 19 May 2026Chengdu Better City 0–1 SHANGHAI SIPGSuper League
- 30 August 2025Chengdu Better City 4–1 SHANGHAI SIPGSuper League
- 20 April 2025SHANGHAI SIPG 1–3 Chengdu Better CitySuper League
- 18 October 2024Chengdu Better City 3–1 SHANGHAI SIPGSuper League
- 22 May 2024SHANGHAI SIPG 2–0 Chengdu Better CitySuper League
- 23 September 2023Chengdu Better City 2–1 SHANGHAI SIPGSuper League
Leading scorers: SHANGHAI SIPG and Chengdu Better City
SHANGHAI SIPG
GoalsAssists
- Leonardo92
Chengdu Better City
GoalsAssists
- Felipe173
- Wellington Silva96
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
SHANGHAI SIPG carry a model rating of 6.39 against 6.4 for Chengdu Better City. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.70 goals for SHANGHAI SIPG and 1.29 for Chengdu Better City. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
SHANGHAI SIPG rate 0.61 in attack and 1.52 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Chengdu Better City rate 0.59 and 1.47.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Chengdu Better City, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives SHANGHAI SIPG a 0% chance of the title and Chengdu Better City 100%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives SHANGHAI SIPG the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.70 expected goals for SHANGHAI SIPG against 1.29 for Chengdu Better City. SHANGHAI SIPG's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.52 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.47 for Chengdu Better City.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
SHANGHAI SIPG at home · Chengdu Better City away
League matches only, Super League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super League matches this season: SHANGHAI SIPG 27, Chengdu Better City 27.
SHANGHAI SIPG score most often in the 46–60 minute window (13 goals); Chengdu Better City have let in 6 there.
Chengdu Better City score most often in the 76–90 minute window (21 goals); SHANGHAI SIPG have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
SHANGHAI SIPG
- at Tianjin Teda24 Oct · Super Leaguewin 32%
- vs Công An Nhân Dân27 Oct · AFC Champions League Elitewin 52%
- at Newcastle Jets3 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 26%
- vs Shenyang Urban8 Nov · Super Leaguewin 61%
- vs Buriram United24 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 49%
Chengdu Better City
- vs Dalian Zhixing24 Oct · Super Leaguewin 50%
- at Shandong Luneng8 Nov · Super Leaguewin 34%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.