Championship (Scotland)

1. Stenhousemuir — 22 points from 9 played (7 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost), 12 scored, 4 conceded, goal difference +8. Form, oldest first: W W W W L.
2. Raith Rovers — 20 points from 10 played (6 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost), 15 scored, 6 conceded, goal difference +9. Form, oldest first: W D L W W.
3. Partick — 18 points from 9 played (5 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost), 10 scored, 3 conceded, goal difference +7. Form, oldest first: W L D W W.
4. Livingston — 13 points from 10 played (4 won, 1 drawn, 5 lost), 14 scored, 11 conceded, goal difference +3. Form, oldest first: W D W L L.
5. Dunfermline — 13 points from 8 played (3 won, 4 drawn, 1 lost), 7 scored, 5 conceded, goal difference +2. Form, oldest first: W D W W D.
6. Inverness CT — 13 points from 10 played (3 won, 4 drawn, 3 lost), 12 scored, 11 conceded, goal difference +1. Form, oldest first: W D W W L.
7. Ayr Utd — 12 points from 10 played (3 won, 3 drawn, 4 lost), 10 scored, 11 conceded, goal difference -1. Form, oldest first: L W L W D.
8. Arbroath — 11 points from 10 played (3 won, 2 drawn, 5 lost), 7 scored, 15 conceded, goal difference -8. Form, oldest first: L L W L L.
9. Queen's Park — 7 points from 10 played (2 won, 1 drawn, 7 lost), 6 scored, 16 conceded, goal difference -10. Form, oldest first: L L L L W.
10. Morton — 4 points from 10 played (1 won, 1 drawn, 8 lost), 7 scored, 18 conceded, goal difference -11. Form, oldest first: L L L L W.

What moved

Measured against 2026-10-13, the last update whose numbers changed — not against the last time the page was built, because an unchanged projection is carried forward rather than restamped. 10 clubs moved in all; the rest are in the projection below.

• Inverness CT — chance of finishing top down 1.8, to 1.2%; bottom-three risk up 7.4, to 21.4%.
• Queen's Park — bottom-three risk down 3.3, to 95.2%.
• Arbroath — chance of finishing top up 1.2, to 4.9%; bottom-three risk down 3.1, to 5.6%.
• Dunfermline — chance of finishing top up 2.2, to 19.5%; bottom-three risk down 0.1, to 2.4%.
• Ayr Utd — chance of finishing top down 0.1, to 0%; bottom-three risk down 1.8, to 65%.

Season projection

Every one of the 132 matches this phase has left, played out 10,000 times by the same model that makes our match predictions — but rating each side on its whole season rather than its last six games, since one hot run should not decide a title race. The figures are final positions, not qualification or relegation: those depend on each country's rules and playoffs. A statistical estimate, not betting advice. These figures cover the regular season only. The regular season is not the end of the competition: Semi-finals, Final follow it, and no projection here covers them. Movement is measured against 2026-10-13, the last update whose numbers changed.

1. Stenhousemuir — projected to finish on 66.1 points, from 22 after 9 played. Finishes top of the regular season 33% (down 1.7), finishes top four 85.2%, bottom two 0%.
2. Partick — projected to finish on 63.2 points, from 18 after 9 played. Finishes top of the regular season 24.5% (down 1.6), finishes top four 76.1%, bottom two 0.1%.
3. Dunfermline — projected to finish on 61.5 points, from 13 after 8 played. Finishes top of the regular season 19.5% (up 2.2), finishes top four 70.6%, bottom two 0.2%.
4. Raith Rovers — projected to finish on 59 points, from 20 after 10 played. Finishes top of the regular season 11.3% (up 1.4), finishes top four 59.7%, bottom two 0.1%.
5. Arbroath — projected to finish on 55.3 points, from 11 after 10 played. Finishes top of the regular season 4.9% (up 1.2), finishes top four 42.8%, bottom two 0.5%.
6. Livingston — projected to finish on 55.1 points, from 13 after 10 played. Finishes top of the regular season 5.5% (up 0.3), finishes top four 42.7%, bottom two 1%.
7. Inverness CT — projected to finish on 48.8 points, from 13 after 10 played. Finishes top of the regular season 1.2% (down 1.8), finishes top four 19.9%, bottom two 3.8%.
8. Ayr Utd — projected to finish on 40.3 points, from 12 after 10 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0% (down 0.1), finishes top four 2.8%, bottom two 18.8%.
9. Queen's Park — projected to finish on 28.9 points, from 7 after 10 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top four 0.2%, bottom two 81.4%.
10. Morton — projected to finish on 23 points, from 4 after 10 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top four 0%, bottom two 94.1%.