4 October 2026, 13:00 UTC

Azerbaijan vs Lithuania UEFA Nations League prediction & result

Bakcell Arena, Baku
Referee: Gustavo Correia, Portugal
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Azerbaijan 1-0 Lithuania.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Azerbaijan, 32% draw, 30% Lithuania — fair odds of 2.63, 3.13 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Azerbaijan at 38% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Azerbaijan97%Draw3%Lithuania0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Abdulakh khaybulaevassist: Tural Bayramov
25'
Abdulakh khaybulaev
33'
43'
Modestas Vorobjovas
🔁Tural Bayramovout: Vüsal İsgändärli
45'
45'
🔁Modestas Vorobjovasout: Lukas Michelbrink
45'
🔁Edgaras Utkusout: Kipras Kazukolovas
Ayxan Abbasov
51'
•Abdulakh khaybulaev
53'
54'
Artur Dolžnikov
Vüsal İsgändärli
57'
🔁Abdulakh khaybulaevout: Renat Dadaşov
64'
🔁Oruc Məmmədovout: Emil Safarov
64'
67'
🔁Adrian Lickunasout: Motiejus Burba
67'
🔁Vykintas Slivkaout: Eligijus Jankauskas
🔁Aleksey Isaevout: C. Nuriyev
80'
83'
🔁Rokas Lekiatasout: Ignas Venckus
🔁Tellur Mutallimovout: Elvin Badalov
88'
Elvin Badalov
90+2'
90+7'
Eligijus Jankauskas
90+7'
A. Kučys

Match stats — Azerbaijan vs Lithuania

38%Possession62%
13Shots13
7On target3
2Corners5

Line-ups

Azerbaijan 3-4-3
  • 1E. BalayevG
  • 4R. MəmmədovD
  • 15B. HüseynovD
  • 2R. DaşdəmirovD
  • 19T. MütəllimovM
  • 6A. XaybulayevM
  • 20A. IsaevM
  • 3R. AbbasovM
  • 7T. BayramovF
  • 10M. EmreliF
  • 18Oruc MəmmədovF
Substitutes
  • 14E. BədəlovD
  • 21R. AbdullazadəM
  • 12A. BayramovG
  • 9R. DadashovF
  • 17V. İsgəndərliF
  • 5A. KrivotsyukD
  • 8E. MahmudovM
  • 23R. MirzəmmədovG
  • 11A. NuriyevM
Coach: Aykhan Abbasov
Lithuania 3-4-3
  • 12T. ŠvedkauskasG
  • 18V. ArmalasD
  • 3E. UtkusD
  • 20R. LekiatasD
  • 21A. LickūnasM
  • 6M. VorobjovasM
  • 15G. GineitisM
  • 13J. LasickasM
  • 14V. SlivkaF
  • 10A. KučysF
  • 7A. DolžnikovF
Substitutes
  • 11E. JankauskasF
  • 5K. KažukolovasD
  • 22M. BurbaF
  • 16Lukas MichelbrinkM
  • 1L. PaukštėG
  • 9M. RuzgisF
  • 8D. ŠlutaM
  • 4F. SteponavičiusF
  • 2A. TutyškinasD
Coach: E. Jankauskas

Form going into Azerbaijan vs Lithuania

Azerbaijan

  • D0-0Liechtenstein1 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Lithuania27 September 2026

Lithuania

  • D1-1Azerbaijan27 September 2026
  • W2-0away to Liechtenstein24 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Azerbaijan312021+15
2Lithuania311132+14

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Azerbaijan vs Lithuania

  • 4 October 2026Azerbaijan 1–0 LithuaniaUEFA Nations League
  • 27 September 2026Lithuania 1–1 AzerbaijanUEFA Nations League
  • 25 March 2019Azerbaijan 0–0 LithuaniaFriendlies
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.