4 October 2026, 18:45 UTC

Netherlands vs Serbia UEFA Nations League prediction & result

Philips Stadion, Eindhoven
Referee: Donatas Rumsas, Lithuania
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Netherlands 2-1 Serbia.

Before kick-off the model made it 48% Netherlands, 27% draw, 25% Serbia — fair odds of 2.08, 3.70 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Netherlands at 48% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Netherlands97%Draw3%Serbia0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

14'
stefan gudelj
30'
Strahinja Pavlovic
⚽T. Koopmeiners
31'
35'
⚽M. Cvetkovicassist: A. Terzic
Tijjani Reijnders
45'
🔁M. Meerdinkout: J. Zirkzee
46'
49'
Saša Lukić
🔁J. Veermanout: J. Hato
58'
🔁N. Langout: R. van Bommel
58'
🔁R. Gravenberchout: G. Zechiel
59'
66'
🔁A. Stankovicout: N. Maksimovic
66'
🔁D. Tadicout: L. Jovic
⚽J. Zirkzeeassist: T. Reijnders
72'
73'
🔁L. Samardzicout: A. Zivkovic
74'
Nemanja Maksimović
74'
🔁A. Terzicout: F. Kostic
79'
🔁S. Gudeljout: N. Gudelj
🔁T. Reijndersout: Q. Timber
82'
83'
Veljko Paunovic

Match stats — Netherlands vs Serbia

65%Possession35%
22Shots14
7On target4
6Corners4

Line-ups

Netherlands 4-2-3-1
  • 1B. VerbruggenG
  • 22D. DumfriesD
  • 4V. van DijkD
  • 20T. KoopmeinersD
  • 15M. van de VenD
  • 8R. GravenberchM
  • 18J. VeermanM
  • 7C. SummervilleM
  • 14T. ReijndersM
  • 10N. LangM
  • 17M. MeerdinkF
Substitutes
  • 23M. FlekkenG
  • 13R. RoefsG
  • 12J. TimberD
  • 5N. AkeD
  • 3J. HatoD
  • 6Q. TimberM
  • 2J. FrimpongD
  • 19K. TaylorM
  • 21G. ZechielM
Coach: Ronald Koeman
Serbia 5-3-2
  • 23V. Milinkovic-SavicG
  • 2K. NedeljkovicD
  • 19S. GudeljD
  • 15S. BabicD
  • 3S. PavlovicD
  • 17A. TerzicD
  • 21L. SamardzicM
  • 22S. LukicM
  • 7A. StankovicM
  • 18M. CvetkovicF
  • 10D. TadicF
Substitutes
  • 1D. RosicG
  • 12F. StankovicG
  • 16S. ErakovicD
  • 4O. MimovicD
  • 13N. SimicD
  • 6N. GudeljM
  • 5N. MaksimovicM
  • 20V. DragojevicM
  • 11F. KosticM
Coach: Dragan Stojković

Form going into Netherlands vs Serbia

Netherlands

  • D2-2away to Greece1 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Serbia27 September 2026
  • D1-1Germany24 September 2026

Serbia

  • L0-2away to Germany1 October 2026
  • L1-2Netherlands27 September 2026
  • L1-2Greece24 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Netherlands422075+28
4Serbia400438-50

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Netherlands vs Serbia

  • 4 October 2026Netherlands 2–1 SerbiaUEFA Nations League
  • 27 September 2026Serbia 1–2 NetherlandsUEFA Nations League
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.