Wales vs Denmark UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Wales 0-1 Denmark.
Before kick-off the model made it 28% Wales, 29% draw, 43% Denmark — fair odds of 3.57, 3.45 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
All Nations League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Denmark at 43% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Wales vs Denmark
Line-ups
- 12Danny WardG
- 3Neco WilliamsD
- 6Ben CabangoD
- 4Ben DaviesD
- 15Jay DaSilvaD
- 5Ethan AmpaduM
- 17Jordan JamesM
- 11Brennan JohnsonM
- 10Liam CullenM
- 19Sorba ThomasM
- 9Lewis KoumasF
- 22Josh SheehanM
- 18Mark HarrisF
- 8Wes BurnsF
- 23Joel ColwillM
- 13Kieffer MooreF
- 1David CornellG
- 21Tom KingG
- 2Chris MephamD
- 14Connor RobertsD
- 16Mads HermansenG
- 13Rasmus KristensenD
- 2Joachim AndersenD
- 3Oliver ProvstgaardD
- 5Joakim MæhleD
- 8Gustav IsaksenM
- 21Morten HjulmandM
- 23Pierre-Emile HøjbjergM
- 20Mohamed DaramyM
- 9Rasmus HøjlundF
- 7Victor FroholdtF
- 11Andreas Skov OlsenF
- 18Anton GaaeiD
- 15Mathias KvistgaardenF
- 19Kasper HøghF
- 1Andreas JungdalG
- 22Filip JørgensenG
- 4Lucas HøgsbergD
- 6Victor NelssonD
- 10Thomas JørgensenM
Form going into Wales vs Denmark
Wales
- W2-1Norway1 October 2026
- L0-2away to Denmark27 September 2026
- L0-1away to Portugal24 September 2026
Denmark
- L2-4Portugal1 October 2026
- W2-0Wales27 September 2026
- L2-3away to Norway24 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Wales | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 3 |
| 2 | Denmark | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Wales vs Denmark
- 4 October 2026Wales 0–1 DenmarkUEFA Nations League
- 27 September 2026Denmark 2–0 WalesUEFA Nations League
- 26 June 2021Wales 0–4 DenmarkEuro Championship
- 16 November 2018Wales 1–2 DenmarkUEFA Nations League
- 9 September 2018Denmark 2–0 WalesUEFA Nations League
Leading scorers: Wales and Denmark
Wales
No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.
Denmark
GoalsAssists
- R. Højlund30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.