4 October 2026, 18:45 UTC

Rep. Of Ireland vs Israel UEFA Nations League prediction & result

Gradski Stadion, Backa Topola
Referee: Juan Martinez Munuera, Spain
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Rep. Of Ireland 1-1 Israel.

Before kick-off the model made it 48% Rep. Of Ireland, 29% draw, 23% Israel — fair odds of 2.08, 3.45 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Rep. Of Ireland at 48% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Rep. Of Ireland5%Draw93%Israel2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

28'
Idan Nachmias
•Jimmy Dunne
36'
38'
Dor Peretz
⚽T. Parrott (pen)
39'
Liam Scales
44'
47'
⚽D. Peretz
58'
🔁D. Turgemanout: O. Gandelman
58'
🔁E. Azoulayout: L. Yarin
🔁A. Idahout: R. Vata
69'
🔁J. Moylanout: C. Ogbene
69'
72'
🔁L. Abadaout: M. Solomon
78'
🔁I. Feingoldout: E. Dasa
78'
🔁E. Peretzout: Y. Shua
🔁R. Manningout: J. Bagan
84'
🔁C. Coventryout: B. Lawal
84'
90+2'
Yarin Levi

Match stats — Rep. Of Ireland vs Israel

55%Possession45%
16Shots10
4On target2
3Corners3
1.9xG1

Goals against chances

Rep. Of Ireland1 from 1.90 xGless than the chances were worth
Israel1 from 1.00 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Rep. Of Ireland 3-4-2-1
  • 1C. KelleherG
  • 2J. DunneD
  • 5J. O'BrienD
  • 3L. ScalesD
  • 8J. KnightM
  • 14C. CoventryM
  • 6J. MolumbyM
  • 18R. ManningM
  • 17J. MoylanF
  • 10A. IdahF
  • 7T. ParrottF
Substitutes
  • 16M. O'LearyG
  • 23J. KeeleyG
  • 13J. BaganD
  • 15J. EganD
  • 12L. KitchingD
  • 4B. Lawal
  • 11F. AzazM
  • 22K. PhillipsM
  • 21R. VataF
Coach: Heimir Hallgrímsson
Israel 5-4-1
  • 23A. TzurG
  • 20L. AbadaD
  • 17I. FeingoldD
  • 5I. NachmiasD
  • 13N. StoinovD
  • 3R. RevivoD
  • 8D. PeretzM
  • 15E. PeretzM
  • 21E. AzoulayM
  • 11O. GloukhM
  • 19D. TurgemanF
Substitutes
  • 1N. EliasiG
  • 18O. GlazerG
  • 2E. DasaD
  • 14G. MizrahiD
  • 6O. GandelmanM
  • 16G. KanichowskyM
  • 12L. YarinM
  • 7Y. ShuaF
  • 10M. SolomonF
Coach: Ran Ben Shimon

Form going into Rep. Of Ireland vs Israel

Rep. Of Ireland

  • D2-2Austria1 October 2026
  • W3-0away to Israel27 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Kosovo24 September 2026

Israel

  • D0-0Kosovo1 October 2026
  • L0-3Rep. Of Ireland27 September 2026
  • L1-3away to Austria24 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Rep. Of Ireland412164+25
4Israel402227-52

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Rep. Of Ireland vs Israel

  • 4 October 2026Rep. Of Ireland 1–1 IsraelUEFA Nations League
  • 27 September 2026Israel 0–3 Rep. Of IrelandUEFA Nations League

Leading scorers: Rep. Of Ireland and Israel

Rep. Of Ireland

GoalsAssists

  • T. Parrott40

Israel

No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.