4 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

Malta vs Andorra UEFA Nations League prediction & result

Ta'Qali National Stadium, Takali
Referee: Mikkel Redder, Denmark
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Malta 1-0 Andorra.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% Malta, 31% draw, 26% Andorra — fair odds of 2.33, 3.23 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Malta at 43% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Malta98%Draw2%Andorra0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Enrico Pepe
7'
🔁Enrico Pepeout: Gabriel Bohrer Mentz
45'
⚽Teddy Teumaassist: Ylyas Chouaref
49'
🔁Teddy Teumaout: Paul Mbong
56'
69'
Ot Planes
70'
🔁Alexandre Martínezout: Jordi Aláez
🔁Joseph Mbongout: Carlo Zammit Lonardelli
72'
🔁Juan Corbalanout: Zach Muscat
72'
79'
Aron Rodrigo
84'
🔁Moisés San Nicolásout: Christian Garcia
🔁Ylyas Chouarefout: Andrea Zammit
85'
Alexander·Satariano
86'
89'
Christian Garcia

Match stats — Malta vs Andorra

55%Possession45%
12Shots12
6On target3
6Corners5

Line-ups

Malta 4-2-3-1
  • 1H. BonelloG
  • 21J. CorbalanD
  • 5K. ShawD
  • 13E. PepeD
  • 3R. CamenzuliD
  • 6B. PaiberM
  • 23A. SatarianoM
  • 7J. MbongM
  • 10T. TeumaM
  • 20I. ChouarefM
  • 11I. CardonaF
Substitutes
  • 17J. AzzopardiM
  • 2J. BorgD
  • 15M. BeermanD
  • 9K. CannavòF
  • 19K. EwurumF
  • 8P. MbongF
  • 22Z. MuscatD
  • 14A. ZammitF
  • 16R. Al TumiG
Coach: E. De Leo
Andorra 4-4-2
  • 12Iker ÁlvarezG
  • 2Biel BorraD
  • 5Max LloveraD
  • 22Ian OliveraD
  • 15Moisés San NicolásD
  • 7Alexandre MartínezM
  • 23Ot PlanesM
  • 3Pau BabotM
  • 17Aron RodrigoM
  • 11Albert RosasF
  • 10G. LópezF
Substitutes
  • 21M. GarciaM
  • 4Christian GarcíaD
  • 14Jordi AláezM
  • 1Josep GómesG
  • 6Kiko PomaresD
  • 18J. RubioD
  • 16João TeixeiraM
  • 8Eric ValesM
  • 20Izan FernándezF
Coach: Koldo

Form going into Malta vs Andorra

Malta

  • D1-1Gibraltar1 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Andorra24 September 2026

Andorra

  • D0-0away to Gibraltar27 September 2026
  • L1-2Malta24 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Malta321042+27
3Andorra301213-21

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Malta vs Andorra

  • 4 October 2026Malta 1–0 AndorraUEFA Nations League
  • 24 September 2026Andorra 1–2 MaltaUEFA Nations League
  • 19 November 2024Malta 0–0 AndorraUEFA Nations League
  • 10 September 2024Andorra 0–1 MaltaUEFA Nations League
  • 14 November 2020Malta 3–1 AndorraUEFA Nations League
  • 10 October 2020Andorra 0–0 MaltaUEFA Nations League

The full Malta vs Andorra record →

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.