Portugal vs Norway UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Portugal 2-1 Norway.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Portugal, 28% draw, 32% Norway — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
All Nations League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Portugal at 40% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Portugal vs Norway
Line-ups
- 1Diogo CostaG
- 20João CanceloD
- 3Rúben DiasD
- 13Renato VeigaD
- 19Nuno MendesD
- 6João PalhinhaM
- 14Francisco ConceiçãoM
- 23VitinhaM
- 8Bruno FernandesM
- 9Gonçalo RamosF
- 11João FélixF
- 2Diogo DalotD
- 21Rúben NevesM
- 10Bernardo SilvaM
- 5Nuno TavaresD
- 16Francisco TrincãoF
- 22Samuel SoaresG
- 12Rui SilvaG
- 4Tomás AraújoD
- 15João NevesM
- 13Egil SelvikG
- 7Fredrik AursnesD
- 3Kristoffer AjerD
- 4Leo ØstigårdD
- 5David Møller WolfeD
- 8Sander BergeM
- 6Patrick BergM
- 21Andreas SchjelderupM
- 10Martin ØdegaardM
- 20Antonio NusaM
- 9Erling HaalandF
- 11Jørgen Strand LarsenF
- 22Oscar BobbM
- 19Thelo AasgaardM
- 1Ørjan NylandG
- 12Sander TangvikG
- 2Odin Luras BjørtuftD
- 14Fredrik SjøvoldD
- 15Sondre LangåsD
- 16Marcus PedersenD
Form going into Portugal vs Norway
Portugal
- W4-2away to Denmark1 October 2026
- W2-1away to Norway27 September 2026
- W1-0Wales24 September 2026
Norway
- L1-2away to Wales1 October 2026
- L1-2Portugal27 September 2026
- W3-2Denmark24 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Portugal | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 12 |
| 4 | Norway | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Portugal vs Norway
- 4 October 2026Portugal 2–1 NorwayUEFA Nations League
- 27 September 2026Norway 1–2 PortugalUEFA Nations League
Leading scorers: Portugal and Norway
Portugal
GoalsAssists
- Gonçalo Ramos31
- João Félix31
Norway
GoalsAssists
- E. Haaland30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.