4 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

Kosovo vs Austria UEFA Nations League prediction & result

Stadiumi Fadil Vokrri, Pristina
Referee: Antonio Nobre, Portugal
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Kosovo 1-1 Austria.

Before kick-off the model made it 29% Kosovo, 30% draw, 41% Austria — fair odds of 3.45, 3.33 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Austria at 41% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Kosovo3%Draw93%Austria4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

62'
🔁Romano Schmidout: Sasa Kalajdzic
62'
🔁Alexander Prassout: Christoph Lang
62'
🔁Patrick Wimmerout: Marco Grüll
🔁Vedat Muriqiout: Fisnik Asllani
67'
🔁Baton Zabergjaout: Milot Rashica
67'
⚽Fisnik Asllaniassist: Edon Zhegrova
70'
77'
🔁Nicolas Seiwaldout: Maximilian Wöber
🔁Edon Zhegrovaout: Ermal Krasniqi
81'
🔁Veldin Hodzaout: Vesel Demaku
81'
85'
⚽Christoph Langassist: Sasa Kalajdzic
🔁Milot Rashicaout: Meriton Korenica
88'
Lumbardh Dellova
90+2'

Match stats — Kosovo vs Austria

36%Possession64%
10Shots13
5On target4
3Corners5

Line-ups

Kosovo 3-4-3
  • 16A. SaipiG
  • 5L. DellovaD
  • 4I. KrasniqiD
  • 2R. RaciD
  • 15M. VojvodaM
  • 23L. AvdullahuM
  • 20V. HodžaM
  • 13D. GallapeniM
  • 10E. ZhegrovaF
  • 18V. MuriqiF
  • 14B. ZabërgjaF
Substitutes
  • 12V. BekajG
  • 21L. EmërllahuM
  • 1A. MurićG
  • 8V. MatoshiM
  • 17E. KrasniqiF
  • 22M. KorenicaF
  • 11F. AsllaniF
  • 6Erblin OsmaniM
  • 7M. RashicaM
Coach: F. Foda
Austria 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. SchlagerG
  • 5S. PoschD
  • 18F. BacherD
  • 3K. DansoD
  • 20K. LaimerD
  • 6N. SeiwaldM
  • 4X. SchlagerM
  • 21P. WimmerM
  • 10R. SchmidM
  • 22A. PrassM
  • 11M. GregoritschF
Substitutes
  • 13M. BignettiG
  • 17C. ChukwuemekaM
  • 23M. FriedlD
  • 19M. GrüllF
  • 9S. KalajdzicF
  • 7C. LangM
  • 15P. LienhartD
  • 16P. MweneD
  • 12F. WiegeleG
Coach: R. Rangnick

Form going into Kosovo vs Austria

Kosovo

  • D0-0away to Israel1 October 2026
  • L1-3away to Austria27 September 2026
  • W1-0Rep. Of Ireland24 September 2026

Austria

  • D2-2away to Rep. Of Ireland1 October 2026
  • W3-1Kosovo27 September 2026
  • W3-1Israel24 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Kosovo412134-15
1Austria422095+48

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Kosovo vs Austria

  • 4 October 2026Kosovo 1–1 AustriaUEFA Nations League
  • 27 September 2026Austria 3–1 KosovoUEFA Nations League
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.