4 October 2026, 18:45 UTC

Greece vs Germany UEFA Nations League prediction & result

Toumba Stadium, Thessaloniki
Referee: Clement Turpin, France
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Greece 0-0 Germany.

Before kick-off the model made it 30% Greece, 30% draw, 40% Germany — fair odds of 3.33, 3.33 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Germany at 40% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Greece3%Draw93%Germany4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Kostas Tsimikas
23'
32'
•Jonathan Burkardt
36'
Waldemar Anton
🔁Vangelis Pavlidisout: Konstantinos Karetsas
46'
🔁Alexandros Kyziridisout: Athanasios Androutsos
46'
Christos Zafeiris
53'
63'
🔁Jonathan Burkardtout: Nick Woltemade
63'
🔁Lennart Karlout: Said El Mala
66'
Philipp Treu
🔁Dimitris Kourbelisout: Christos Mouzakitis
68'
🔁Konstantinos Mavropanosout: Panagiotis Retsos
78'
Manolis Saliakas
79'
83'
🔁Tom Bischofout: Mika Baur
83'
🔁Derry Scherhantout: Bambasé Conté
🔁Fotis Ioannidisout: Charalampos Kostoulas
88'
90'
Malick Thiaw

Match stats — Greece vs Germany

30%Possession70%
5Shots21
2On target4
2Corners3
0.72xG1.38

Goals against chances

Greece0 from 0.72 xGless than the chances were worth
Germany0 from 1.38 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Greece 4-4-2
  • 12Konstantinos TzolakisG
  • 17Manolis SaliakasD
  • 4Konstantinos MavropanosD
  • 3Konstantinos KoulierakisD
  • 21Kostas TsimikasD
  • 7Giorgos MasourasM
  • 6Dimitris KourbelisM
  • 20Christos ZafeirisM
  • 23Alexandros KyziridisM
  • 14Vangelis PavlidisF
  • 8Fotis IoannidisF
Substitutes
  • 15Athanasios AndroutsosM
  • 19Konstantinos KaretsasM
  • 16Christos MouzakitisM
  • 5Panagiotis RetsosD
  • 11Charalampos KostoulasF
  • 1Odysseas VlachodimosG
  • 13Christos MandasG
  • 2Triantafyllos TsaprasM
  • 18Giannis MichailidisD
Coach: Ivan Jovanović
Germany 4-4-2
  • 1Jonas UrbigG
  • 13Philipp TreuD
  • 2Malick ThiawD
  • 3Waldemar AntonD
  • 22David RaumD
  • 15Lennart KarlM
  • 8Tom BischofM
  • 5Aleksandar PavlovićM
  • 9Derry ScherhantM
  • 17Florian WirtzF
  • 10Jonathan BurkardtF
Substitutes
  • 7Said El MalaM
  • 11Nick WoltemadeF
  • 14Mika BaurM
  • 19Bambasé ContéM
  • 12Finn DahmenG
  • 21Noah AtuboluG
  • 4Finn JeltschD
  • 16Ridle BakuD
  • 18Maximilian MittelstädtD
Coach: Julian Nagelsmann

Form going into Greece vs Germany

Greece

  • D2-2Netherlands1 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Germany27 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Serbia24 September 2026

Germany

  • W2-0Serbia1 October 2026
  • L0-1Greece27 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Netherlands24 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Greece422053+28
3Germany412132+15

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Greece vs Germany

  • 4 October 2026Greece 0–0 GermanyUEFA Nations League
  • 27 September 2026Germany 0–1 GreeceUEFA Nations League
  • 7 June 2024Germany 2–1 GreeceFriendlies
  • 22 June 2012Germany 4–2 GreeceEuro Championship
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.