Estudiantes La Plata
vs
San Lorenzo
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: Estudiantes La Plata 1–0 San Lorenzo
The model makes it 48% Estudiantes La Plata, 33% draw, 19% San Lorenzo — fair odds of 2.08, 3.03 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (21%).
Expected goals: Estudiantes La Plata 1.16, San Lorenzo 0.53.
Both teams to score: 29%. Over 2.5 goals: 24%, under 2.5: 76%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Estudiantes La Plata: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Estudiantes La Plata are 9th on 14 points from 12 games; San Lorenzo are 10th on 14 points from 12 games — Liga Profesional Argentina, Clausura - Group A.
- Estudiantes La Plata have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Central Cordoba de Santiago.
- San Lorenzo have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Deportivo Riestra.
- Last 6 meetings: San Lorenzo 1 win to 0, 5 draws; the most recent, 3 April 2026, ended San Lorenzo 1–0 Estudiantes La Plata.
More Liga Profesional Argentina predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Estudiantes La Plata vs San Lorenzo
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Estudiantes La Plata at 48% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Estudiantes La Plata vs San Lorenzo
Estudiantes La Plata
- D2-2away to Central Cordoba de Santiago10 October 2026
- W3-0Gimnasia Mendoza5 October 2026
- L1-2away to Lanus22 September 2026
- W2-1Platense12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Velez Sarsfield6 September 2026
San Lorenzo
- W1-0Deportivo Riestra11 October 2026
- L0-3away to Defensa Y Justicia3 October 2026
- L0-2Boca Juniors20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Independiente13 September 2026
- W1-0Talleres Cordoba5 September 2026
What these results say
- Estudiantes La Plata scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Estudiantes La Plata conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Estudiantes La Plata had three goals or more.
- 4 of these 5 matches for San Lorenzo had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Estudiantes La Plata | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 14 |
| 10 | San Lorenzo | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Estudiantes La Plata
Chance to finish in the bottom three
San Lorenzo
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 17% today
From our Liga Profesional Argentina season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Estudiantes La Plata vs San Lorenzo
- 3 April 2026San Lorenzo 1–0 Estudiantes La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
- 5 November 2024San Lorenzo 1–1 Estudiantes La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
- 13 February 2024San Lorenzo 1–1 Estudiantes La PlataCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 20 September 2023Estudiantes La Plata 0–0 San LorenzoCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 21 June 2023Estudiantes La Plata 1–1 San LorenzoLiga Profesional Argentina
- 7 August 2022San Lorenzo 0–0 Estudiantes La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
The two sides
Estudiantes La Plata carry a model rating of 6.74 against 6.52 for San Lorenzo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.16 goals for Estudiantes La Plata and 0.53 for San Lorenzo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Estudiantes La Plata rate 0.85 in attack and 1.07 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; San Lorenzo rate 0.54 and 1.11.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Estudiantes La Plata the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Estudiantes La Plata against 0.53 for San Lorenzo. Estudiantes La Plata's attack/defence rating is 0.85/1.07 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.11 for San Lorenzo.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Estudiantes La Plata at home · San Lorenzo away
League matches only, Liga Profesional Argentina, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Profesional Argentina matches this season: Estudiantes La Plata 28, San Lorenzo 28.
Estudiantes La Plata score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); San Lorenzo have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Estudiantes La Plata
- at Flamengo23 Oct · CONMEBOL Libertadoreswin 14%
- at Union Santa Fe26 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 36%
- vs Instituto Cordoba1 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 41%
- at Talleres Cordoba8 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 36%
San Lorenzo
- vs Newell's Old Boys24 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 33%
- at Velez Sarsfield31 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 20%
- vs Platense8 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 38%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.