HNK Gorica vs Rudes HNL prediction & result
Final score: HNK Gorica 1-2 Rudes.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% HNK Gorica, 26% draw, 22% Rudes — fair odds of 1.92, 3.85 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Croatian HNL predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts HNK Gorica at 52% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — HNK Gorica vs Rudes
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1R. JosipovićG
- 2F. BrautM
- 32J. FilipovićD
- 15D. StevanovićD
- 5Gonçalo CostaD
- 66Juraj FriganM
- 6T. LacouxM
- 25B. BogojevićF
- 10F. BrodićF
- 8J. PranjićF
- 9P. MijićF
- 34I. CvijanovićD
- 50A. ErcegF
- 18B. KardumF
- 71D. MatijašG
- 21H. MoustaphaD
- 24D. PavičićM
- 45S. PerićD
- 30D. ŽarkovG
- 20L. VrzićF
- 95L. RogićG
- 42M. ZebiÄD
- 4V. CeljakD
- 29S. BralićD
- 2B. UnušićD
- 24I. ĐorićM
- 37N. SkokoM
- 27Felipe CurcioD
- 28xaviM
- 78J. FernándesF
- 11J. PoldrugačM
- 26I. ŽutićD
- 35Josip BralicF
- 88S. El HaddadF
- 1Filip HoljevacG
- 7L. IlečićF
- 14T. KolegaF
- 34K. LovrićF
- 33J. PejicM
- 8Luka PopovicM
Form going into HNK Gorica vs Rudes
HNK Gorica
- W1-0away to Istra 196119 September 2026
- D2-2NK Varazdin14 September 2026
- L0-1away to Dinamo Zagreb5 September 2026
- D0-0HNK Rijeka31 August 2026
Rudes
- D2-2NK Slaven Belupo18 September 2026
- L2-3away to Istra 196113 September 2026
- L0-4HNK Hajduk Split6 September 2026
- L0-2away to NK Varazdin29 August 2026
What these results say
- HNK Gorica failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for HNK Gorica had two goals or fewer.
- Rudes did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Rudes conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Rudes had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | HNK Gorica | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 5 |
| 9 | Rudes | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 25 | -13 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: HNK Gorica vs Rudes
- 29 October 2025Rudes 0–6 HNK GoricaCup
- 27 July 2024HNK Gorica 3–0 RudesFriendlies Clubs
- 10 May 2024HNK Gorica 2–1 RudesHNL
- 4 March 2024Rudes 2–1 HNK GoricaHNL
- 26 November 2023HNK Gorica 3–0 RudesHNL
- 2 September 2023Rudes 0–2 HNK GoricaHNL
Leading scorers: HNK Gorica and Rudes
HNK Gorica
GoalsAssists
- B. Bogojević40
Rudes
GoalsAssists
- L. Ilečić22
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.