HNK Hajduk Split vs Dinamo Zagreb HNL prediction & result
Final score: HNK Hajduk Split 2-1 Dinamo Zagreb.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% HNK Hajduk Split, 27% draw, 36% Dinamo Zagreb — fair odds of 2.70, 3.70 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts HNK Hajduk Split at 37% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — HNK Hajduk Split vs Dinamo Zagreb
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 33T. SilićG
- 22M. AcapandiéD
- 15D. MarešićD
- 14R. RaciD
- 32Š. HrgovićD
- 20Alberto del MoralM
- 8K. FayadM
- 7A. SanyangM
- 9DaliM
- 23M. ŠotičekM
- 11M. ŠegoF
- 18L. DendonckerM
- 99D. FesyukG
- 3Roko GabrićD
- 6D. HadžikadunićD
- 26A. GuramM
- 10M. LivajaF
- 77Carlos MartínF
- 17D. MelnjakD
- 44D. StipicaG
- 24D. KotarskiG
- 13Paul Bismarck TabinasD
- 36Sergi DomínguezD
- 26S. McKennaD
- 22Olof Matteo Perez VinlöfD
- 8M. ZajcM
- 5K. KravtsovM
- 80L. KačavendaM
- 21M. LisicaF
- 9D. BeljoF
- 17L. IvanušecF
- 14S. PrevljakF
- 99M. OršićF
- 20R. MudražijaM
- 11A. HoxhaF
- 3B. GodaD
- 15N. GalešićD
- 44I. FilipovićG
- 23Iker AlmenaF
- 6S. RadeljićD
Form going into HNK Hajduk Split vs Dinamo Zagreb
HNK Hajduk Split
- L0-3away to HNK Rijeka20 September 2026
- W1-0NK Slaven Belupo13 September 2026
- W4-0away to Rudes6 September 2026
- W2-0NK Lokomotiva Zagreb31 August 2026
Dinamo Zagreb
- W3-2NK Lokomotiva Zagreb20 September 2026
- L2-4away to NK Osijek12 September 2026
- W1-0HNK Gorica5 September 2026
- D2-2away to Istra 196129 August 2026
What these results say
- HNK Hajduk Split won 3 of these 4 matches.
- HNK Hajduk Split scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- HNK Hajduk Split kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Dinamo Zagreb scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Dinamo Zagreb conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Dinamo Zagreb had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HNK Hajduk Split | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 9 | +9 | 19 |
| 3 | Dinamo Zagreb | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 11 | +7 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: HNK Hajduk Split vs Dinamo Zagreb
- 10 October 2026HNK Hajduk Split 2–1 Dinamo ZagrebHNL
- 9 May 2026Dinamo Zagreb 2–0 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
- 8 March 2026HNK Hajduk Split 1–3 Dinamo ZagrebHNL
- 6 December 2025Dinamo Zagreb 1–1 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
- 20 September 2025HNK Hajduk Split 0–2 Dinamo ZagrebHNL
- 3 May 2025HNK Hajduk Split 1–3 Dinamo ZagrebHNL
Leading scorers: HNK Hajduk Split and Dinamo Zagreb
HNK Hajduk Split
GoalsAssists
- M. Šego41
- M. Livaja30
- A. Sanyang21
Dinamo Zagreb
GoalsAssists
- D. Beljo103
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.