NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Varazdin HNL prediction & result
Final score: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0-1 NK Varazdin.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% NK Lokomotiva Zagreb, 30% draw, 36% NK Varazdin — fair odds of 2.94, 3.33 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
All Croatian HNL predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts NK Varazdin at 36% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Varazdin
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12J. PosavecG
- 13F. KaračićD
- 2J. GurlicaD
- 4T. TriantafyllouD
- 20K. ČabrajićD
- 9L. BelcarM
- 10M. SubotićM
- 23M. VešovićM
- 29J. VasiljM
- 15Dominik ThaqiM
- 24M. MarićF
- 16KaykeF
- 7D. VukovićF
- 28N. ĐurkovićF
- 6F. FetaiM
- 8I. KatićM
- 11Lovre KulušićF
- 14M. LorberM
- 26M. DardanM
- 32L. SavatovićG
- 33J. SilićG
- 23F. MaglicaD
- 13M. MladenovskiD
- 16N. TepšićD
- 3E. DurakovićD
- 28I. CanjugaM
- 24M. MarinaM
- 12P. BočkajM
- 22L. MamićM
- 21I. PosavecM
- 10A. LatkovićF
- 44M. BaraćD
- 17V. AkrapF
- 11E. UchegbuF
- 8T. DuvnjakM
- 20G. SikošekD
- 6D. PuclinM
- 30L. PosinkovicD
- 19L. LukanićM
- 5Sven LesjakD
Form going into NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Varazdin
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- L2-3away to Dinamo Zagreb20 September 2026
- D1-1HNK Rijeka12 September 2026
- L1-2away to NK Slaven Belupo6 September 2026
- L0-2away to HNK Hajduk Split31 August 2026
NK Varazdin
- D0-0NK Osijek19 September 2026
- D2-2away to HNK Gorica14 September 2026
- D0-0Istra 19614 September 2026
- W2-0Rudes29 August 2026
What these results say
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb did not win any of these 4 matches.
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- NK Varazdin went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- NK Varazdin failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- NK Varazdin kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 7 |
| 2 | NK Varazdin | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Varazdin
- 11 October 2026NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0–1 NK VarazdinHNL
- 27 June 2026NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 2–1 NK VarazdinFriendlies Clubs
- 9 May 2026NK Varazdin 1–1 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
- 7 March 2026NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1–1 NK VarazdinHNL
- 7 December 2025NK Varazdin 4–2 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
- 20 September 2025NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1–0 NK VarazdinHNL
Leading scorers: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and NK Varazdin
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
GoalsAssists
- D. Vuković32
NK Varazdin
GoalsAssists
- L. Mamić40
- I. Canjuga32
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.