NK Slaven Belupo vs HNK Rijeka HNL prediction & result
Final score: NK Slaven Belupo 4-1 HNK Rijeka.
Before kick-off the model made it 26% NK Slaven Belupo, 29% draw, 45% HNK Rijeka — fair odds of 3.85, 3.45 and 2.22. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Croatian HNL predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts HNK Rijeka at 45% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — NK Slaven Belupo vs HNK Rijeka
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 32I. ČovićG
- 18F. KrušeljD
- 6T. BožićD
- 15J. MersinajD
- 77I. UrataD
- 22A. AdeshinaM
- 17F. MažarM
- 7M. DabroM
- 8L. BanovecM
- 11J. MitrovićM
- 90I. NestorovskiF
- 30K. SentićG
- 14Losika RatshukuduF
- 19L. ZahoraF
- 23A. JónssonM
- 21L. CrepuljaM
- 24L. BošnjakM
- 88D. BosakM
- 4D. KovačićD
- 29Lovro LoncaricF
- 13I. VekičG
- 22A. OrečD
- 45A. MajstorovićD
- 51A. HusicD
- 23J. LasickasD
- 8I. ĆubelićM
- 5A. BarcoM
- 4N. JankovićM
- 26Tiago DantasM
- 19S. VignatoM
- 18D. Adu-AdjeiF
- 34M. DevetakD
- 10T. FrukM
- 14A. GojakM
- 15Goran GrulovićF
- 77A. JuričF
- 7Y. KabadayıF
- 12Domagoj Ivan MaricG
- 6B. PaviÄM
- 21J. PuljićF
Form going into NK Slaven Belupo vs HNK Rijeka
NK Slaven Belupo
- D2-2away to Rudes18 September 2026
- L0-1away to HNK Hajduk Split13 September 2026
- W2-1NK Lokomotiva Zagreb6 September 2026
- L0-3away to NK Osijek30 August 2026
HNK Rijeka
- W3-0HNK Hajduk Split20 September 2026
- D1-1away to NK Lokomotiva Zagreb12 September 2026
- W4-1NK Osijek5 September 2026
- D0-0away to HNK Gorica31 August 2026
What these results say
- NK Slaven Belupo conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- NK Slaven Belupo failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for NK Slaven Belupo had three goals or more.
- HNK Rijeka went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- HNK Rijeka scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | NK Slaven Belupo | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 10 |
| 5 | HNK Rijeka | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: NK Slaven Belupo vs HNK Rijeka
- 11 October 2026NK Slaven Belupo 4–1 HNK RijekaHNL
- 8 April 2026HNK Rijeka 2–0 NK Slaven BelupoCup
- 4 April 2026NK Slaven Belupo 0–2 HNK RijekaHNL
- 24 January 2026HNK Rijeka 2–2 NK Slaven BelupoHNL
- 18 October 2025NK Slaven Belupo 1–1 HNK RijekaHNL
- 3 August 2025HNK Rijeka 2–0 NK Slaven BelupoHNL
Leading scorers: NK Slaven Belupo and HNK Rijeka
NK Slaven Belupo
GoalsAssists
- I. Nestorovski70
HNK Rijeka
GoalsAssists
- D. Adu-Adjei43
- Tiago Dantas32
- T. Fruk23
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.