10 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

NK Osijek vs Istra 1961 HNL prediction & result

Opus Arena, Osijek
Referee: Ivan Vukančić, Croatia
Full time1 – 3

Final score: NK Osijek 1-3 Istra 1961.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% NK Osijek, 29% draw, 26% Istra 1961 — fair odds of 2.22, 3.45 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts NK Osijek at 45% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

NK Osijek0%Draw4%Istra 196196%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Simun Mikolcic
2'
31'
🔁Daouda Doumbiaout: Demirel hodzic
34'
⚽Antonio Mauricassist: Emil Frederiksen
🔁Emin Hasicout: ivano kolarik
45'
45'
🔁Antonio Mauricout: Dukan Ahmeti
50'
⚽Nik Skafar Zuzicassist: Dukan Ahmeti
🔁Domagoj Bukvicout: Admir ljatifi
56'
🔁Álejandro Canteroout: Ivan Dolček
56'
🔁Luka vrbancicout: Oleksandr Petrusenko
62'
🔁Marcel Heisterout: David Kalem
62'
67'
Demirel hodzic
Simun Mikolcic
69'
71'
Gustavo albarracin
Armando León
76'
79'
🔁Nik Skafar Zuzicout: Silvio Gorican
85'
🔁Gustavo albarracinout: Matija Kablar
90+3'
⚽Dukan Ahmeti
90+6'
Dukan Ahmeti

Match stats — NK Osijek vs Istra 1961

64%Possession36%
16Shots16
4On target6
10Corners5
0.81xG2.64

Goals against chances

NK Osijek1 from 0.81 xGabout what the chances were worth
Istra 19613 from 2.64 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

NK Osijek 4-2-3-1
  • 31M. MalenicaG
  • 22J. KruiverD
  • 98Izak JežićD
  • 33E. HasićD
  • 2M. HeisterD
  • 23L. VrbancicM
  • 8Š. MikolčićM
  • 39D. BukvićM
  • 11Luka TunjicM
  • 21CanteroM
  • 79A. LeónF
Substitutes
  • 1N. CurcijaG
  • 7I. DolčekF
  • 18Niko FarkašM
  • 26L. JelenićD
  • 47D. KalemD
  • 49Ivano KolarikD
  • 30A. LjatifiF
  • 16O. PetrusenkoM
  • 24L. PosavecD
Coach: Fede Bessone
Istra 1961 4-2-3-1
  • 1F. KolićG
  • 44R. HrvatinD
  • 3M. NasraouiD
  • 4R. KumarD
  • 13Niko ŠepićD
  • 88D. DoumbiaM
  • 25G. AlbarracínM
  • 22E. FrederiksenM
  • 8A. MaurićM
  • 30N. Skafar ZuzicM
  • 9IsaacF
Substitutes
  • 27D. CelijaF
  • 20D. AhmetiM
  • 12Roko BanovacG
  • 39T. BrajkovicF
  • 11S. GoričanF
  • 5D. HodzicM
  • 16S. MiettinenD
  • 66M. MomohD
  • 40J. Paus-KunštG
Coach: Javier Cabello

Form going into NK Osijek vs Istra 1961

NK Osijek

  • D0-0away to NK Varazdin19 September 2026
  • W4-2Dinamo Zagreb12 September 2026
  • L1-4away to HNK Rijeka5 September 2026
  • W3-0NK Slaven Belupo30 August 2026

Istra 1961

  • L0-1HNK Gorica19 September 2026
  • W3-2Rudes13 September 2026
  • D0-0away to NK Varazdin4 September 2026
  • D2-2Dinamo Zagreb29 August 2026

What these results say

  • NK Osijek scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for NK Osijek had three goals or more.
  • Istra 1961 failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Istra 1961 conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

HNL table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4NK Osijek95131814+416
6Istra 196193331714+312

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: NK Osijek vs Istra 1961

  • 10 October 2026NK Osijek 1–3 Istra 1961HNL
  • 10 May 2026NK Osijek 0–1 Istra 1961HNL
  • 6 March 2026Istra 1961 0–1 NK OsijekHNL
  • 7 December 2025NK Osijek 1–5 Istra 1961HNL
  • 21 September 2025Istra 1961 2–1 NK OsijekHNL
  • 25 May 2025NK Osijek 1–1 Istra 1961HNL

Leading scorers: NK Osijek and Istra 1961

NK Osijek

GoalsAssists

  • A. León51
  • N. Omerović50

Istra 1961

GoalsAssists

  • E. Frederiksen73
  • H. Jaganjac41
  • D. Ahmeti34

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.