İstanbulspor vs Esenler Erokspor 1. Lig prediction & result
Final score: İstanbulspor 0-1 Esenler Erokspor.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% İstanbulspor, 28% draw, 38% Esenler Erokspor — fair odds of 2.94, 3.57 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Esenler Erokspor at 38% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — İstanbulspor vs Esenler Erokspor
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 28A. TutarG
- 11B. NızamD
- 5M. OlogoD
- 4D. SahinD
- 89E. UzunhanD
- 3Y. ÖzerD
- 10I. IlievM
- 21D. AydınM
- 15E. MendyM
- 52Ã. DuymazM
- 9M. SolF
- 18Turan TuncerD
- 12K. SönmezM
- 1I. DoganG
- 30Alieu ChamF
- 7PhellipeF
- 81A. AkmanF
- 27M. FallF
- 34A. KaraM
- 61E. SarıalioğluM
- 22E. CanpolatG
- 70F. OrakD
- 21B. ÖztürkD
- 4Luccas ClaroD
- 33E. AlićD
- 8G. KangaM
- 5M. OkyarM
- 17B. ÇobanM
- 7N. JanvierM
- 11M. FayeM
- 99P. GuèyeF
- 77H. BilazerD
- 20M. BuljubašićM
- 53Y. ErdoğanM
- 9K. KanatsızkuşF
- 6T. KaçarM
- 39E. KaşD
- 10R. NiyazM
- 27F. YazganM
- 88A. ZeqiriM
Form going into İstanbulspor vs Esenler Erokspor
İstanbulspor
- W1-0away to Manisa F.K.20 September 2026
- L0-4away to Kayserispor14 September 2026
- L1-2Iğdır FK7 September 2026
Esenler Erokspor
- L0-2Fatih Karagümrük19 September 2026
- D2-2away to Bursaspor13 September 2026
- L0-3Kayserispor7 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | İstanbulspor | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 24 | -15 | 5 |
| 16 | Esenler Erokspor | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: İstanbulspor vs Esenler Erokspor
- 17 February 2026İstanbulspor 1–4 Esenler Erokspor1. Lig
- 24 September 2025Esenler Erokspor 5–0 İstanbulspor1. Lig
- 4 May 2025Esenler Erokspor 0–3 İstanbulspor1. Lig
- 5 January 2025İstanbulspor 4–0 Esenler Erokspor1. Lig
- 18 December 2024Esenler Erokspor 1–2 İstanbulsporTürkiye Kupası
Leading scorers: İstanbulspor and Esenler Erokspor
İstanbulspor
GoalsAssists
- Alieu Cham31
Esenler Erokspor
No player in 1. Lig's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.