10 October 2026, 16:30 UTC

Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos Super League 1 prediction & result

Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium, Tripoli
Referee: Dimitrios Moschou, Greece
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Asteras Tripolis 2-1 Atromitos.

Before kick-off the model made it 33% Asteras Tripolis, 29% draw, 38% Atromitos — fair odds of 3.03, 3.45 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Atromitos at 38% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Asteras Tripolis96%Draw4%Atromitos0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Kalvin Ketuassist: Eder González
4'
⚽Julián Bartoloassist: Alejandro·Mendez Garcia
22'
23'
⚽Dani Garcíaassist: Theocharis Tsingaras
🔁Dimitrios Kourbelisout: Julián Chicco
31'
•Julián Bartolo
45+4'
45'
🔁Mattheos Mountesout: Sotiris Tsiloulis
45'
🔁S. Pnevmonidisout: Kelvin Ofori
Julián Chicco
55'
57'
Dani García
69'
Kelvin Ofori
🔁Kalvin Ketuout: Antonis Papakanellos
71'
73'
🔁Juan José Pereaout: Panagiotis Tsantilas
74'
🔁Sotiris Tsiloulisout: Anastasios Kotsis
84'
🔁Dani Garcíaout: Serginho
🔁Federico Machedaout: Nikos Kaltsas
90+1'
🔁Julián Bartoloout: Giannis Bouzoukis
90+1'
🔁Eder Gonzálezout: Ricardo Viana Filho
90+1'

Match stats — Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos

35%Possession65%
12Shots8
10On target1
1Corners6
1.21xG0.51

Goals against chances

Asteras Tripolis2 from 1.21 xGmore than the chances were worth
Atromitos1 from 0.51 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Asteras Tripolis 3-4-3
  • 1N. PapadopoulosG
  • 74D. LaskarisD
  • 16F. BrorssonD
  • 6K. ChrisopoulosD
  • 27G. KotsirasM
  • 21D. KourbelisM
  • 10Eder GonzálezM
  • 28Alex MéndezM
  • 7J. BartoloF
  • 9F. MachedaF
  • 11K. KetuF
Substitutes
  • 61V. ChatziemmanouilG
  • 14J. ChiccoM
  • 20N. KaltsasF
  • 51Giannis KriarasG
  • 75B. Mbunga KimpiokaF
  • 19F. OrozcoM
  • 44A. PapakanellosM
  • 80B. PérezM
  • 17A. TereziouF
Coach: G. Antonopoulos
Atromitos 4-3-3
  • 1L. ChoutesiotisG
  • 12M. MountesD
  • 4D. StavrópoulosD
  • 32H. MagnússonD
  • 21J. UronenD
  • 5T. TsingarasM
  • 14Dani GarcíaM
  • 8S. MoutoussamyM
  • 10S. PnevmonidisF
  • 9J. PereaF
  • 7S. ZuberF
Substitutes
  • 88S. DiengG
  • 33Konstantinos BatosM
  • 20S. AbartzidisM
  • 6T. KaramanisD
  • 30A. KotsisM
  • 24G. MitoglouD
  • 97K. OforiM
  • 16G. PapadopoulosD
  • 44D. TsakmakisD
Coach: D. Kerkez

Form going into Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos

Asteras Tripolis

  • D2-2away to OFI20 September 2026
  • D1-1AEK Athens FC13 September 2026
  • L0-2Iraklis 19087 September 2026
  • L0-1Olympiakos Piraeus30 August 2026

Atromitos

  • L1-2Kifisia19 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Iraklis 190812 September 2026
  • D1-1Kalamata6 September 2026
  • L1-2PAOK30 August 2026

What these results say

  • Asteras Tripolis did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Asteras Tripolis conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Asteras Tripolis had two goals or fewer.
  • Atromitos did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Atromitos scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Atromitos conceded in every one of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Super League 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Asteras Tripolis6123610-45
12Atromitos602459-42

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos

  • 10 October 2026Asteras Tripolis 2–1 AtromitosSuper League 1
  • 2 May 2026Asteras Tripolis 4–2 AtromitosSuper League 1
  • 26 April 2026Atromitos 2–1 Asteras TripolisSuper League 1
  • 21 February 2026Asteras Tripolis 1–2 AtromitosSuper League 1
  • 30 November 2025Atromitos 0–1 Asteras TripolisSuper League 1
  • 19 July 2025Atromitos 0–0 Asteras TripolisFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: Asteras Tripolis and Atromitos

Asteras Tripolis

GoalsAssists

  • F. Macheda21
  • K. Ketu20
  • J. Bartolo20

Atromitos

GoalsAssists

  • S. Moutoussamy20

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.