10 October 2026, 16:30 UTC

AEK Athens FC vs OFI Super League 1 prediction & result

Allwyn Arena, Athens
Referee: Georgios Kokkinos, Greece
Full time3 – 0

Final score: AEK Athens FC 3-0 OFI.

Before kick-off the model made it 70% AEK Athens FC, 19% draw, 11% OFI — fair odds of 1.43, 5.26 and 9.09. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts AEK Athens FC at 70% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 321 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 63.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.1%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

AEK Athens FC99%Draw1%OFI0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

24'
C. Kontis
Llazaros Rota
34'
34'
Taxiarchis Fountas
36'
Aitor Cantalapiedra
⚽Filipe do Bem Relvas Vitó Oliveiraassist: Lovro Majer
41'
🔁Kaan Kairinenout: Ambrósini António Cabaça Salvador
62'
66'
Aitor Cantalapiedra
🔁Dereck Kutesaout: João Mário
67'
71'
🔁Taxiarchis Fountasout: Thiago Nuss
72'
🔁Andreas Bouchalakisout: Giannis Apostolakis
78'
🔁Kenan Kodroout: Anastasios Chatzigiovanis
79'
🔁Konstantinos Kostoulasout: Borja González
⚽Harold Moukoudiassist: Răzvan Marin
83'
Lovro Majer
86'
🔁Llazaros Rotaout: Martin Georgiev
87'
🔁Luka Jovicout: Mijat Gaćinović
88'
🔁Lovro Majerout: Milan Vitális
88'
90+1'
🔁Athanasios Androutsosout: Zisis Karachalios
⚽Mijat Gaćinović
90+3'

Match stats — AEK Athens FC vs OFI

57%Possession43%
19Shots4
7On target0
9Corners4
1.7xG0.23

Goals against chances

AEK Athens FC3 from 1.70 xGmore than the chances were worth
OFI0 from 0.23 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

AEK Athens FC 4-2-3-1
  • 91A. BrignoliG
  • 12L. RotaD
  • 2H. MoukoudiD
  • 44Filipe RelvasD
  • 3S. PiliosD
  • 6K. KairinenM
  • 18R. MarinM
  • 14L. MajerM
  • 11A. KoitaM
  • 7D. KutesaM
  • 9L. JovićF
Substitutes
  • 10O. ZubkovM
  • 27M. VitálisM
  • 90ZiniF
  • 41Marios BalamotisG
  • 16K. ArriagaM
  • 5C. AlexiouD
  • 8M. GaćinovićM
  • 22C. LykogiannisD
  • 20P. MantalosM
Coach: M. Nikolić
OFI 3-4-3
  • 31N. ChristogeorgosG
  • 5K. KostoulasD
  • 15A. PoungourasD
  • 2K. KrizmanićD
  • 24L. DickmannM
  • 14T. AndroutsosM
  • 41A. BouchalakisM
  • 3N. AthanasiouM
  • 11T. FountasF
  • 19K. KodroF
  • 10Aitor CantalapiedraF
Substitutes
  • 17Borja GonzálezD
  • 7T. ChatzigiovanisM
  • 21G. ApostolakisM
  • 90Pavlos KenourgiakisD
  • 8G. KanellópoulosM
  • 6Z. KarachaliosM
  • 13P. KatsikasG
  • 1K. LiloG
  • 43D. NikolaouD
Coach: C. Kontis

Form going into AEK Athens FC vs OFI

AEK Athens FC

  • W2-1away to Volos NFC20 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Asteras Tripolis13 September 2026
  • W5-0Aris Thessalonikis5 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Kifisia30 August 2026

OFI

  • D2-2Asteras Tripolis20 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Olympiakos Piraeus12 September 2026
  • W2-0Kifisia6 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Aris Thessalonikis30 August 2026

What these results say

  • AEK Athens FC went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • AEK Athens FC scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • AEK Athens FC conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • OFI scored in every one of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Super League 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2AEK Athens FC6420163+1314
6OFI631287+110

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: AEK Athens FC vs OFI

  • 10 October 2026AEK Athens FC 3–0 OFISuper League 1
  • 12 August 2026AEK Athens FC 2–2 OFISuper Cup
  • 14 January 2026AEK Athens FC 0–1 OFICup
  • 21 December 2025AEK Athens FC 2–1 OFISuper League 1
  • 3 December 2025AEK Athens FC 2–0 OFICup
  • 9 November 2025OFI 0–1 AEK Athens FCSuper League 1

The full AEK Athens FC vs OFI record →

Leading scorers: AEK Athens FC and OFI

AEK Athens FC

GoalsAssists

  • B. Varga40
  • L. Jović40
  • Zini20

OFI

GoalsAssists

  • K. Kodro20

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.