Kayserispor vs Manisa F.K. 1. Lig prediction & result
Final score: Kayserispor 3-2 Manisa F.K..
Before kick-off the model made it 52% Kayserispor, 26% draw, 22% Manisa F.K. — fair odds of 1.92, 3.85 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Kayserispor at 52% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Kayserispor vs Manisa F.K.
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 35G. DeğirmenciG
- 7M. UçarD
- 4S. GülerD
- 3J. TabidzeD
- 77C. ŞenD
- 28Mamadi CamaráM
- 8S. KurtM
- 61G. SağlamM
- 10B. KeserF
- 27D. MorenoF
- 97T. SeferiF
- 16Deniz Eren DonmezerG
- 88M. DulcaM
- 5K. CihanD
- 6C. AkpınarM
- 17M. GöçkanD
- 9F. HasaniF
- 38Ataol KarapinarM
- 11E. KemaloğluM
- 22D. RaduD
- 1V. KarakuşG
- 22K. YurdakulD
- 5C. HérelleD
- 45Ada IbikD
- 27Y. GürelerD
- 60B. TouréM
- 20Y. BenrahouM
- 6A. ÇankayaM
- 23J. AnzianiM
- 7Y. TalumM
- 9C. SyllaF
- 13Egemen YayliG
- 70A. VargasF
- 11N. LeminaM
- 2Yunus Emre KöseD
- 3O. KaynakF
- 17Osman KahramanF
- 4F. İnalD
- 24Y. DursunM
- 25A. SenF
Form going into Kayserispor vs Manisa F.K.
Kayserispor
- W1-0away to Mardin 196920 September 2026
- W4-0İstanbulspor14 September 2026
- W3-0away to Esenler Erokspor7 September 2026
Manisa F.K.
- L0-1İstanbulspor20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Fatih Karagümrük13 September 2026
- L1-2Bursaspor7 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kayserispor | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 5 | +17 | 25 |
| 15 | Manisa F.K. | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Kayserispor vs Manisa F.K.
- 19 December 2019Manisa F.K. 3–3 KayserisporTürkiye Kupası
- 5 December 2019Kayserispor 3–2 Manisa F.K.Türkiye Kupası
Leading scorers: Kayserispor and Manisa F.K.
Kayserispor
GoalsAssists
- T. Seferi91
- D. Moreno70
- B. Keser32
Manisa F.K.
GoalsAssists
- C. Sylla52
- J. Anziani51
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.