Kashiwa Reysol
vs
Port FC
AFC Champions League Elite prediction & result
Final score: Kashiwa Reysol 5-1 Port FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 72% Kashiwa Reysol, 17% draw, 11% Port FC — fair odds of 1.39, 5.88 and 9.09. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Kashiwa Reysol 2.92, Port FC 0.87.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 73%, under 2.5: 27%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
More AFC Champions League Elite predictions
Model insights: Kashiwa Reysol vs Port FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Kashiwa Reysol at 72% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 321 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 63.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.1%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Kashiwa Reysol vs Port FC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 29K. NagaiG
- 42W. HaradaD
- 4T. KogaD
- 2H. MitsumaruD
- 24T. KuboM
- 39N. NakagawaM
- 40R. HarakawaM
- 44K. YubaM
- 87H. YamauchiF
- 16K. YurukiF
- 18Y. KakitaF
- 63Y. Kaneko
- 13T. InukaiD
- 26D. SugiokaD
- 32Y. YamanouchiD
- 21Y. KonishiM
- 8Y. KoizumiM
- 43Y. KamoM
- 33S. Iwanaga
- 23K. ChonanM
- 93M. FalkesgaardG
- 4S. BureeratD
- 28E. SviatchenkoD
- 15M. BihrD
- 25C. OttonD
- 19R. CostaM
- 33N. ShimuraM
- 5P. ChamratsameeM
- 11BrunoM
- 14T. PoeiphimaiF
- 7I. Al SabhiF
- 1S. YosG
- 40R. KemmueangG
- 20Marcel ScaleseD
- 36P. AkkratumD
- 24J. KaewpromM
- 22W. KanitsribampenM
- 47S. BoonlhaM
- 17S. RatreeM
- 9Ruan RibeiroF
Form going into Kashiwa Reysol vs Port FC
Kashiwa Reysol
- L1-2away to Jeonbuk Motors16 September 2026
Port FC
- L1-2Vissel Kobe16 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Kashiwa Reysol | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 3 |
| 15 | Port FC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Kashiwa Reysol vs Port FC
- 14 October 2026Kashiwa Reysol 5–1 Port FCAFC Champions League Elite
Leading scorers: Kashiwa Reysol and Port FC
Kashiwa Reysol
GoalsAssists
- K. Yuba11
Port FC
No player in AFC Champions League Elite's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 2.92 goals for Kashiwa Reysol and 0.87 for Port FC; the game produced 5 and 1.
A gap that size between expected and actual goals is normal in a single match — it is the reason we publish probabilities rather than predictions, and why the record below is measured over hundreds of games rather than one.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Tojiro Kubo 3' (Kashiwa Reysol), Yuki Kakita 10' (Kashiwa Reysol), Riki Harakawa 15' (Kashiwa Reysol), Koya Yuruki 26' (Kashiwa Reysol), Hinata Yamauchi 28' (Kashiwa Reysol), Manuel Bihr 64' (Port FC).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Kashiwa Reysol the highest probability at 72%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.92 expected goals for Kashiwa Reysol against 0.87 for Port FC. Kashiwa Reysol's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.33 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/2.12 for Port FC.