Leicester vs Peterborough League One prediction & result
Final score: Leicester 1-3 Peterborough.
Before kick-off the model made it 58% Leicester, 24% draw, 18% Peterborough — fair odds of 1.72, 4.17 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Leicester at 58% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Leicester vs Peterborough
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 29A. McCarthyG
- 32O. AlukoD
- 5C. OkoliD
- 16W. O'HoraD
- 33L. ThomasD
- 6J. LundstramM
- 25L. PageM
- 11L. CullenM
- 14B. De Cordova-ReidM
- 37W. AlvesM
- 17E. RiisF
- 36S. BraybrookeM
- 7W. BurnsF
- 27K. DoyleM
- 20H. HowellF
- 24I. KangasniemiD
- 21F. RavizzoliG
- 15H. SouttarD
- 1A. BassG
- 2C. JohnstonD
- 18Lucca MendonçaD
- 12Joshua FeeneyD
- 14Harley MillsD
- 4L. KellyM
- 45Harry AshfieldM
- 19Bolu ShofowokeM
- 10Ethan WilliamsM
- 11O. EdwardsM
- 9H. LeonardF
- 16B. WoodsM
- 26D. OkagbueD
- 8B. KhelaM
- 28M. GarbettM
- 27D. OrmerodF
- 17Vernon MasaraF
- 23C. Andeng NdiG
Form going into Leicester vs Peterborough
Leicester
- D1-1away to Barnsley19 September 2026
- W4-3away to Stockport County12 September 2026
- L0-4Oxford United5 September 2026
- W2-0Plymouth1 September 2026
Peterborough
- L0-1away to Stockport County26 September 2026
- L0-2Doncaster19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Milton Keynes Dons12 September 2026
- L1-2Sheffield Wednesday5 September 2026
What these results say
- Leicester scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Leicester conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Peterborough did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Peterborough conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Peterborough had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Leicester | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 9 |
| 20 | Peterborough | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Leicester vs Peterborough
- 10 October 2026Leicester 1–3 PeterboroughLeague One
- 27 January 2018Peterborough 1–5 LeicesterFA Cup
- 9 February 2013Peterborough 2–1 LeicesterChampionship
- 18 August 2012Leicester 2–0 PeterboroughChampionship
- 31 March 2012Peterborough 1–0 LeicesterChampionship
- 10 December 2011Leicester 1–1 PeterboroughChampionship
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.