Doncaster vs Burton Albion League One prediction & result
Final score: Doncaster 1-0 Burton Albion.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Doncaster, 28% draw, 33% Burton Albion — fair odds of 2.56, 3.57 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Doncaster at 39% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Doncaster vs Burton Albion
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Tommy SimkinG
- 27S. GrehanD
- 12N. ByrneD
- 6J. McGrathD
- 11L. AyindeM
- 22R. GottsM
- 8G. BroadbentM
- 19J. ThomasM
- 4O. BaileyM
- 10A. MayF
- 9B. HanlanF
- 20D. RobinsonM
- 47H. AdelakunF
- 42J. ClarkeG
- 15H. CliftonM
- 50Dylan Hartley
- 21I. HutchinsonM
- 16T. NixonD
- 34C. AddaiG
- 26F. DelapD
- 12G. EvansD
- 16C. TiltD
- 17R. Borges RodriguesM
- 14W. CollarM
- 4K. ChaukeM
- 3J. ArmerM
- 18Caylon VickersM
- 8C. WebsterM
- 19M. DennisF
- 9G. ArubiF
- 24Harvey AraujoD
- 29Kain AdomF
- 32J. KeanG
- 41Sulyman KruballyM
- 6T. SibbickD
- 20J. SrahaD
Form going into Doncaster vs Burton Albion
Doncaster
- W2-0away to Peterborough19 September 2026
- L0-1away to AFC Wimbledon12 September 2026
- L2-3Plymouth5 September 2026
- D1-1Notts County1 September 2026
Burton Albion
- L1-3Huddersfield3 October 2026
- W1-0away to Plymouth26 September 2026
- D2-2Mansfield Town19 September 2026
- L0-3away to Oxford United12 September 2026
What these results say
- Doncaster failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Doncaster scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Doncaster conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Burton Albion failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Burton Albion scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Burton Albion conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Doncaster | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Burton Albion | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Doncaster vs Burton Albion
- 10 October 2026Doncaster 1–0 Burton AlbionLeague One
- 3 February 2026Burton Albion 1–2 DoncasterLeague One
- 4 October 2025Doncaster 1–1 Burton AlbionLeague One
- 7 November 2023Doncaster 2–1 Burton AlbionEFL Trophy
- 23 April 2022Doncaster 2–0 Burton AlbionLeague One
- 27 November 2021Burton Albion 2–0 DoncasterLeague One
Leading scorers: Doncaster and Burton Albion
Doncaster
No player in League One's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Burton Albion
GoalsAssists
- J. Armer31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.