Notts County vs Oxford United League One prediction & result
Final score: Notts County 1-2 Oxford United.
Before kick-off the model made it 30% Notts County, 30% draw, 40% Oxford United — fair odds of 3.33, 3.33 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Oxford United at 40% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Notts County vs Oxford United
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1J. GibbonsG
- 12L. NessD
- 3R. McDonaldD
- 4J. BedeauD
- 2J. GibbonsM
- 8O. CooperM
- 18M. PalmerM
- 26I. Samuels-SmithM
- 7C. RobertsM
- 11C. GrantM
- 9D. KanuF
- 15J. EvansM
- 27R. FinneranM
- 14D. LipsiucM
- 10R. Longelo-MbuleM
- 6M. SandersM
- 19L. SmythF
- 25N. TsaroullaD
- 1J. CummingG
- 30P. KiosoD
- 6M. HelikD
- 3C. BrownD
- 26J. CurrieD
- 11T. GoodrhamM
- 8C. BrannaganM
- 57M. MissangaM
- 32L. SibleyM
- 23S. DembéléM
- 9M. HarrisF
- 20L. LynchF
- 19G. O'DonkorF
- 15B. SpencerD
- 13S. EastwoodG
- 2S. LongD
- 4Kai AndrewsM
- 27L. SnowdenF
Form going into Notts County vs Oxford United
Notts County
- L0-2away to Reading19 September 2026
- L0-1Bradford12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Huddersfield5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Doncaster1 September 2026
Oxford United
- D1-1Cambridge United19 September 2026
- W3-0Burton Albion12 September 2026
- W4-0away to Leicester5 September 2026
- L1-3away to Huddersfield1 September 2026
What these results say
- Notts County did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Notts County conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Notts County had two goals or fewer.
- Oxford United scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Oxford United had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Notts County | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 7 |
| 8 | Oxford United | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 8 | +7 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Notts County vs Oxford United
- 10 October 2026Notts County 1–2 Oxford UnitedLeague One
- 2 January 2016Notts County 2–4 Oxford UnitedLeague Two
- 18 August 2015Oxford United 3–1 Notts CountyLeague Two
Leading scorers: Notts County and Oxford United
Notts County
No player in League One's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Oxford United
GoalsAssists
- M. Harris41
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.