Stevenage vs Wigan League One prediction & result
Final score: Stevenage 1-0 Wigan.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Stevenage, 31% draw, 22% Wigan — fair odds of 2.13, 3.23 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Stevenage at 47% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Stevenage vs Wigan
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1T. SetfordG
- 15T. VancootenD
- 2L. James-WildinD
- 5C. PiergianniD
- 25Wanya MarçalM
- 8D. PhillipsM
- 24M. SmithM
- 14S. EarleyM
- 10D. KempM
- 18O. SandersonF
- 9J. MagennisF
- 44P. PattersonF
- 4J. HoughtonM
- 16K. CaseyD
- 27B. BroggioF
- 12D. BardenG
- 28M. MellonF
- 23L. ThompsonM
- 41J. WhitworthG
- 23J. CarragherD
- 5F. BurnsD
- 4J. Chilokoa-MullenD
- 2C. BarrettM
- 18Charlie GrayM
- 8M. PowerM
- 22J. MellishM
- 6J. WeirM
- 27B. BurrowsM
- 25S. HoganF
- 16Archie HarrisD
- 21K'Marni MillerD
- 7F. MurrayM
- 38C. SaydeeF
- 9S. PerkinsF
- 1J. WalshG
- 10R. WalshM
Form going into Stevenage vs Wigan
Stevenage
- L0-1away to Leyton Orient19 September 2026
- W2-1Luton10 September 2026
- W5-1away to Barnsley5 September 2026
- D0-0away to Peterborough1 September 2026
Wigan
- L0-1Wycombe19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Sheffield Wednesday12 September 2026
- L0-4Stockport County5 September 2026
- W3-1Milton Keynes Dons2 September 2026
What these results say
- Stevenage conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Wigan failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Wigan failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Wigan conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Stevenage | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 12 |
| 24 | Wigan | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Stevenage vs Wigan
- 10 October 2026Stevenage 1–0 WiganLeague One
- 2 May 2026Stevenage 1–0 WiganLeague One
- 29 November 2025Wigan 0–0 StevenageLeague One
- 18 January 2025Stevenage 1–2 WiganLeague One
- 24 September 2024Wigan 0–0 StevenageLeague One
- 27 January 2024Wigan 2–3 StevenageLeague One
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.