Stockport County vs Barnsley League One prediction & result
Final score: Stockport County 3-1 Barnsley.
Before kick-off the model made it 58% Stockport County, 23% draw, 19% Barnsley — fair odds of 1.72, 4.35 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Stockport County at 58% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Stockport County vs Barnsley
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Oliver WhatmuffG
- 24Kyron Silveria GordonD
- 6E. O'ConnellD
- 5E. PyeD
- 15R. GloverM
- 4L. BateM
- 10O. NorwoodM
- 23B. OsbornM
- 7J. DiamondF
- 19K. WoottonF
- 16H. WoodF
- 18L. FioriniM
- 30Ethan EnnisF
- 2J. Dacres-CogleyD
- 9B. AndréssonF
- 20J. AdigunM
- 25M. JobeD
- 22M. MandronF
- 25Rogan RavenhillG
- 11T. NoslinD
- 6C. O'RiordanD
- 5J. ShepherdD
- 2A. KayD
- 8C. McGeehanM
- 45Vimal YoganathanM
- 17Amani RichardsM
- 22Patrick KellyM
- 19R. ClearyM
- 32Royce BrownlieF
- 36L. AlkerF
- 30Jonathan BlandM
- 51Kieren FlavellG
- 4S. GaleD
- 12J. OkedinaD
- 46O'Rian Andrew ReidM
- 13C. TaylorF
Form going into Stockport County vs Barnsley
Stockport County
- W1-0Peterborough26 September 2026
- D0-0away to Sheffield Wednesday19 September 2026
- L3-4Leicester12 September 2026
- W4-0away to Wigan5 September 2026
Barnsley
- D1-1Leicester19 September 2026
- L0-3away to Plymouth12 September 2026
- L1-5Stevenage5 September 2026
- W2-1Blackpool2 September 2026
What these results say
- Stockport County scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Stockport County kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Barnsley conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Barnsley failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Barnsley scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Stockport County | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 11 | +9 | 16 |
| 19 | Barnsley | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Stockport County vs Barnsley
- 10 October 2026Stockport County 3–1 BarnsleyLeague One
- 2 May 2026Barnsley 1–3 Stockport CountyLeague One
- 29 November 2025Stockport County 1–1 BarnsleyLeague One
- 8 February 2025Stockport County 2–1 BarnsleyLeague One
- 28 September 2024Barnsley 1–1 Stockport CountyLeague One
Leading scorers: Stockport County and Barnsley
Stockport County
GoalsAssists
- K. Wootton71
- J. Diamond42
Barnsley
No player in League One's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.