Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon League One prediction & result
Final score: Plymouth 2-1 AFC Wimbledon.
Before kick-off the model made it 58% Plymouth, 24% draw, 18% AFC Wimbledon — fair odds of 1.72, 4.17 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Plymouth at 58% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1M. MahoneyG
- 8J. EdwardsD
- 2M. RossD
- 15A. MitchellD
- 45W. HardingD
- 11R. CurtisM
- 23B. IbrahimM
- 7H. WhiteM
- 14O. IrowM
- 17C. WattsM
- 9W. EvansF
- 10X. AmaechiF
- 19T. BakinsonM
- 38Seb CampbellM
- 22A. HartridgeD
- 3Jack MackenzieD
- 29M. SorinolaD
- 21James StorerG
- 39J. BursikG
- 17A. YiadomD
- 33I. OgundereD
- 6R. JohnsonD
- 29A. SasuM
- 12A. SmithM
- 5O. HarrisonM
- 3S. SeddonM
- 8C. MaycockM
- 21M. HippolyteM
- 9J. StockleyF
- 11M. BrowneM
- 23H. CornickF
- 10Z. NelsonM
- 2S. SessegnonD
- 15F. SimmondsD
- 1N. BishopG
- 22R. HoranD
Form going into Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon
Plymouth
- W2-0away to Leyton Orient3 October 2026
- L0-1Burton Albion26 September 2026
- W4-2away to Blackpool19 September 2026
- W3-0Barnsley12 September 2026
AFC Wimbledon
- D1-1away to Cambridge United26 September 2026
- D0-0Milton Keynes Dons17 September 2026
- W1-0Doncaster12 September 2026
- W2-0away to Bromley7 September 2026
What these results say
- Plymouth won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Plymouth scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- AFC Wimbledon went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for AFC Wimbledon had two goals or fewer.
- AFC Wimbledon scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Plymouth | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 12 | +6 | 19 |
| 11 | AFC Wimbledon | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon
- 10 October 2026Plymouth 2–1 AFC WimbledonLeague One
- 18 April 2026AFC Wimbledon 1–3 PlymouthLeague One
- 18 October 2025Plymouth 1–2 AFC WimbledonLeague One
- 21 December 2022Plymouth 3–3 AFC WimbledonEFL Trophy
- 8 March 2022Plymouth 2–0 AFC WimbledonLeague One
- 18 September 2021AFC Wimbledon 0–1 PlymouthLeague One
Leading scorers: Plymouth and AFC Wimbledon
Plymouth
GoalsAssists
- A. Pepple40
AFC Wimbledon
GoalsAssists
- J. Stockley41
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.