FC Lugano vs FC Luzern Super League prediction & result
Final score: FC Lugano 4-0 FC Luzern.
Before kick-off the model made it 64% FC Lugano, 21% draw, 15% FC Luzern — fair odds of 1.56, 4.76 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Lugano at 64% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC Lugano vs FC Luzern
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 16D. von BallmoosG
- 6A. PapadopoulosD
- 17L. MaiD
- 3H. DelcroixD
- 2B. KarimovM
- 8A. GrgićM
- 21Y. CimignaniM
- 27Daniel Dos SantosM
- 46M. ZanottiM
- 11R. SteffenF
- 9A. AjetiF
- 28F. GebhardtG
- 7E. AlioskiD
- 18J. BichselD
- 26Martim MarquesD
- 4D. KelvinD
- 14A. KendouciM
- 30D. MoncadaF
- 22B. CastroF
- 91K. BehrensF
- 30K. LeticaG
- 13B. FreimannD
- 5S. KneževićD
- 46B. FreimannD
- 22R. FernandesD
- 80Mio ZimmermannM
- 6L. BertoneM
- 24T. OwusuM
- 11M. Di GiustoM
- 16O. tshikombF
- 19D. MikołajewskiF
- 1S. SimoniG
- 20P. DornD
- 21L. LüthiD
- 10Lucas FerreiraM
- 29Levin WinklerM
- 7A. OehlersF
- 27L. VilligerF
- 9A. GrbićF
- 15N. ToggenburgerF
Form going into FC Lugano vs FC Luzern
FC Lugano
- W4-0away to Lausanne20 September 2026
- W4-1FC St. Gallen16 September 2026
- D2-2BSC Young Boys12 September 2026
- W3-1away to FC Basel 18936 September 2026
FC Luzern
- W5-1Grasshoppers19 September 2026
- L2-4FC Basel 189313 September 2026
- D3-3away to BSC Young Boys5 September 2026
- W2-1FC Vaduz2 September 2026
What these results say
- FC Lugano went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- FC Lugano scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for FC Lugano had three goals or more.
- FC Luzern scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- FC Luzern conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for FC Luzern had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Lugano | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 31 | 7 | +24 | 28 |
| 8 | FC Luzern | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 22 | -5 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Lugano vs FC Luzern
- 10 October 2026FC Lugano 4–0 FC LuzernSuper League
- 7 March 2026FC Lugano 1–3 FC LuzernSuper League
- 17 January 2026FC Luzern 2–5 FC LuganoSuper League
- 30 October 2025FC Lugano 2–0 FC LuzernSuper League
- 4 May 2025FC Luzern 0–2 FC LuganoSuper League
- 15 February 2025FC Lugano 2–0 FC LuzernSuper League
Leading scorers: FC Lugano and FC Luzern
FC Lugano
GoalsAssists
- D. Moncada41
- Daniel Dos Santos40
- E. Pihlström31
FC Luzern
GoalsAssists
- D. Mikołajewski43
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.