10 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

Hapoel Haifa vs Maccabi Petah Tikva Ligat Ha'al prediction & result

Sammy Ofer Stadium, Haifa
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Hapoel Haifa 2-1 Maccabi Petah Tikva.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% Hapoel Haifa, 25% draw, 28% Maccabi Petah Tikva — fair odds of 2.13, 4.00 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Hapoel Haifa at 47% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Hapoel Haifa5%Draw91%Maccabi Petah Tikva4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Alon Turgemanassist: Shai Elias
7'
36'
🔁Lior Kasaout: Ido Cohen
C Diakité
45+1'
🔁C Diakitéout: Wahib·Habiballa
45'
58'
🔁Marko Rakonjacout: K. Spence
58'
🔁Eitan Tibiout: Bashar Abdach
🔁Arial Mendyout: Dor Malul
68'
🔁Shai Eliasout: Israel Sali Pahima
69'
70'
⚽Guy Deznet
75'
Aviv Salem
82'
🔁Liran Hazanout: Dan Lee-Yam
82'
🔁Aviv Salemout: Itay Baruch
82'
José Cortés
🔁Liran Rotmanout: Itai Zafrani
82'
•Itai Zafrani
88'
88'
Maor Erlich
Dario Župarić
90+2'
⚽Israel Sali Pahimaassist: Noam Cohen
90+4'

Match stats — Hapoel Haifa vs Maccabi Petah Tikva

48%Possession52%
13Shots8
5On target3
5Corners2
1.1xG0.54

Goals against chances

Hapoel Haifa2 from 1.10 xGmore than the chances were worth
Maccabi Petah Tikva1 from 0.54 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Hapoel Haifa 4-2-3-1
  • 1Y. GerafiG
  • 2N. CohenD
  • 13D. ŽuparićD
  • 5I. KričakD
  • 77A. MendyD
  • 55N. SabagM
  • 8Cheick KeitaM
  • 21C DiakitéM
  • 10S. EliasM
  • 7L. RotmanM
  • 17A. TurgemanF
Substitutes
  • 18Itay ZafraniF
  • 4D. MalulD
  • 11I. S. FahimaM
  • 23M. AmbarG
  • 3T. ArbelD
  • 25G. DibaD
  • 19S. ElkayamD
  • 14W. HabiballaF
  • 20A. HamanM
Coach: H. Silbas
Maccabi Petah Tikva 4-5-1
  • 39M. ErlichG
  • 26G. DeznetD
  • 18E. TibiD
  • 6E. YaoD
  • 17A. SalemD
  • 9S. OwusuM
  • 24L. KasaM
  • 99Eyal InbrumM
  • 53L. HazanM
  • 77J. CortésM
  • 97M. RakonjacF
Substitutes
  • 22Bashar AbdachD
  • 12I. BaruchD
  • 20I. CohenM
  • 30O. DadyaD
  • 8Dan Lee-YamD
  • 7K. SpenceF
  • 1D. HevronG
  • 27Y. KorenF
  • 10A. LugassyF
Coach: Z. Arie

Form going into Hapoel Haifa vs Maccabi Petah Tikva

Hapoel Haifa

  • L1-2away to Beitar Jerusalem19 September 2026
  • W3-1Bnei Sakhnin14 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Maccabi Netanya7 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Hapoel Beer Sheva2 September 2026

Maccabi Petah Tikva

  • L2-4Hapoel Jerusalem19 September 2026
  • L1-3away to Beitar Jerusalem15 September 2026
  • L1-2Ironi Tiberias5 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Bnei Sakhnin29 August 2026

What these results say

  • Hapoel Haifa scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Hapoel Haifa conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 4 matches for Hapoel Haifa.
  • Maccabi Petah Tikva scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Maccabi Petah Tikva conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Maccabi Petah Tikva had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ligat Ha'al table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Hapoel Haifa623197+29
9Maccabi Petah Tikva6204913-46

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Hapoel Haifa vs Maccabi Petah Tikva

  • 10 October 2026Hapoel Haifa 2–1 Maccabi Petah TikvaLigat Ha'al
  • 4 January 2025Hapoel Haifa 5–1 Maccabi Petah TikvaLigat Ha'al
  • 21 September 2024Maccabi Petah Tikva 0–0 Hapoel HaifaLigat Ha'al
  • 5 March 2024Hapoel Haifa 0–3 Maccabi Petah TikvaState Cup
  • 8 January 2024Maccabi Petah Tikva 0–3 Hapoel HaifaLigat Ha'al
  • 2 September 2023Hapoel Haifa 2–2 Maccabi Petah TikvaLigat Ha'al

Leading scorers: Hapoel Haifa and Maccabi Petah Tikva

Hapoel Haifa

GoalsAssists

  • A. Turgeman31

Maccabi Petah Tikva

GoalsAssists

  • J. Cortés21
  • S. Owusu21
  • L. Hazan21

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.