Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Hapoel Tel Aviv Ligat Ha'al prediction & result
Final score: Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1-3 Hapoel Tel Aviv.
Before kick-off the model made it 23% Ironi Kiryat Shmona, 26% draw, 51% Hapoel Tel Aviv — fair odds of 4.35, 3.85 and 1.96. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hapoel Tel Aviv at 51% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Hapoel Tel Aviv
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 19DanielG
- 20O. DarwishD
- 26N. LjubisavljevićD
- 32S. Ben-DavidD
- 17I. ShoolmaysterD
- 63Alexandre SolaM
- 8Talles CostaM
- 7A. SagnaM
- 21R. AbdullazadəM
- 10A. ShirdatzkiM
- 9A. PopF
- 39N. GabayF
- 44S. EdriD
- 12J. Al HalabiF
- 24N. MarkovitchM
- 11S. SabahF
- 91B. ShaheenF
- 16M. SimantovD
- 28I. VaierD
- 1Nikola DjurkovicG
- 22A. TzurG
- 97M. CocoD
- 5F. MayemboD
- 4ChicoD
- 32Y. LeliendalD
- 98FalcãoM
- 14E. KancepolskyM
- 35D. OwusuM
- 15R. AlkokinM
- 51O. AltmanM
- 9E. BoatengF
- 11S. TorialF
- 18T. ArchelD
- 1Dor BenyaminiG
- 27M. BuskilaF
- 44D. DappaF
- 7R. KorineF
- 16D. LeidnerD
- 23A. LemkinM
- 21S. PivenD
Form going into Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Hapoel Tel Aviv
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
- L0-1away to Hapoel Beer Sheva19 September 2026
- L0-4Maccabi Haifa14 September 2026
- L2-4away to Hapoel Jerusalem5 September 2026
- W2-0Ironi Tiberias29 August 2026
Hapoel Tel Aviv
- W3-0Hapoel Petah Tikva18 September 2026
- L1-4away to Maccabi Tel Aviv14 September 2026
- W4-0Hapoel Ramat Gan7 September 2026
- W3-0Beitar Jerusalem3 September 2026
What these results say
- Ironi Kiryat Shmona failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Ironi Kiryat Shmona conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Hapoel Tel Aviv scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Hapoel Tel Aviv had three goals or more.
- Hapoel Tel Aviv won 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Ironi Kiryat Shmona | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 3 |
| 3 | Hapoel Tel Aviv | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 5 | +9 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Hapoel Tel Aviv
- 10 October 2026Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1–3 Hapoel Tel AvivLigat Ha'al
- 16 August 2026Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1–2 Hapoel Tel AvivToto Cup Ligat Al
- 13 December 2025Ironi Kiryat Shmona 2–2 Hapoel Tel AvivLigat Ha'al
- 23 August 2025Hapoel Tel Aviv 2–1 Ironi Kiryat ShmonaLigat Ha'al
- 6 May 2023Hapoel Tel Aviv 2–2 Ironi Kiryat ShmonaLigat Ha'al
- 18 February 2023Ironi Kiryat Shmona 0–1 Hapoel Tel AvivLigat Ha'al
Leading scorers: Ironi Kiryat Shmona and Hapoel Tel Aviv
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
No player in Ligat Ha'al's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Hapoel Tel Aviv
GoalsAssists
- E. Boateng32
- D. Owusu30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.