10 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

FC Zurich vs FC Thun Super League prediction & result

Letzigrund Stadion
Referee: Hajrim Qovanaj
Full time4 – 2

Final score: FC Zurich 4-2 FC Thun.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% FC Zurich, 25% draw, 40% FC Thun — fair odds of 2.86, 4.00 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts FC Thun at 40% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Zurich99%Draw1%FC Thun0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

16'
⚽Simon Lengen
⚽Kevin Spadanudaassist: Umeh Emmanuel
30'
⚽Bledian Krasniqi
37'
40'
A. Ilic
56'
Simon Lengen
57'
🔁Simon Lengenout: Noah Christoffersson
57'
🔁A. Ilicout: Nils·Reichmuth
⚽Doron Lichtensteinassist: Kevin Spadanuda
64'
67'
•Jan Bamert
67'
Jan Bamert
73'
🔁Furkan Dursunout: Riccardo Braschi
73'
🔁Nico Maierout: Dorian Derbaci
⚽Philippe Paulin Kenyassist: Doron Lichtenstein
77'
🔁Miguel Reichmuthout: Nevio Emanuele Di Giusto
78'
82'
🔁Nassim Zoukitout: Louis Immanuel Passavant
🔁Philippe Paulin Kenyout: Din Ramić
85'
🔁Bledian Krasniqiout: Jill Stiel
85'
🔁Kevin Spadanudaout: Mohamed Bangoura
85'
🔁Leandro Schödlerout: Jorge Segura
87'
90'
⚽Dorian Derbaciassist: Fabio Fehr

Match stats — FC Zurich vs FC Thun

63%Possession37%
13Shots13
5On target5
5Corners6
0.94xG1.46

Goals against chances

FC Zurich4 from 0.94 xGmore than the chances were worth
FC Thun2 from 1.46 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FC Zurich 4-1-4-1
  • 1Silas HuberG
  • 47Doron LichtensteinD
  • 2L. KamberiD
  • 21L. SchodlerD
  • 43N. VolkenD
  • 23V. BerishaM
  • 17K. SpadanudaM
  • 38M. ReichmuthM
  • 7B. KrasniqiM
  • 11U. EmmanuelM
  • 19P. KenyF
Substitutes
  • 18M. BangouraM
  • 8L. ComenenciaM
  • 14N. Di GiustoM
  • 6C. FioriniM
  • 42A. HackD
  • 13H. LindnerG
  • 49D. RamićF
  • 4J. SeguraD
  • 46J. StielM
Coach: M. Koller
FC Thun 4-4-2
  • 1N. SteffenG
  • 47F. FehrD
  • 5N. BürgyD
  • 19J. BamertD
  • 18T. StrannegårdD
  • 30N. MaierM
  • 16J. RothM
  • 13N. ZoukitM
  • 52Adam IlicM
  • 80S. LengenF
  • 9F. DursunF
Substitutes
  • 70N. ReichmuthM
  • 54L. PassavantD
  • 2O. MambwaD
  • 37L. DählerD
  • 21D. DerbaciM
  • 26N. ChristofferssonF
  • 20R. BraschiF
  • 17A. BalarubanD
  • 25T. SpycherG
Coach: Gian Luca Privitelli

Form going into FC Zurich vs FC Thun

FC Zurich

  • D1-1away to FC Sion19 September 2026
  • W2-1FC Vaduz13 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Grasshoppers5 September 2026
  • L2-4BSC Young Boys1 September 2026

FC Thun

  • W2-1away to FC Vaduz20 September 2026
  • L2-4Servette FC16 September 2026
  • L0-1Grasshoppers12 September 2026
  • L2-3away to FC Sion6 September 2026

What these results say

  • FC Zurich scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • FC Zurich conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 4 matches for FC Zurich.
  • FC Thun conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • FC Thun failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • FC Thun scored in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Super League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5FC Zurich104241822-414
9FC Thun103161727-1010

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Zurich vs FC Thun

  • 10 October 2026FC Zurich 4–2 FC ThunSuper League
  • 21 March 2026FC Zurich 2–1 FC ThunSuper League
  • 20 December 2025FC Thun 4–2 FC ZurichSuper League
  • 23 August 2025FC Zurich 0–4 FC ThunSuper League
  • 6 July 2024FC Thun 0–0 FC ZurichFriendlies Clubs
  • 3 August 2020FC Zurich 3–3 FC ThunSuper League

Leading scorers: FC Zurich and FC Thun

FC Zurich

GoalsAssists

  • U. Emmanuel43
  • P. Keny41

FC Thun

No player in Super League's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.