Naftan vs Belshina Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Naftan 4-1 Belshina.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% Naftan, 25% draw, 40% Belshina — fair odds of 2.86, 4.00 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Belarusian Premier League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Belshina at 40% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Naftan vs Belshina
Line-ups
- 16D. SadovskiyG
- 8A. StefanishinD
- 5Andrey LebedevD
- 69Roman khadzhievD
- 97V. ChernyavskiyM
- 50G. MafwentaM
- 6K. AdamovichM
- 24I. SeleznevM
- 9V. YakovlevM
- 57T. GalimzyanovF
- 94A. VoskoboynikovF
- 30Marlen AymanovF
- 14I. ChmutD
- 88A. DrabatovichD
- 22V. FezhenkoM
- 13A. KharitonovichG
- 21K. KirkitskiyM
- 7A. TumanovD
- 25Jorge Garcia de la Torre ArmasF
- 10A. SavitskiyM
- 31Pavel PrishivalkoG
- 3A. KuchinskiyD
- 6D. LazarevD
- 17I. VikhrovD
- 14V. DavydovM
- 8V. RusenchikM
- 10Y. KozlovM
- 21N. GolubM
- 27L. ZgurskiyM
- 9A. ShvedchikovF
- 7A. AchapovskiyF
- 77V. KovalevM
- 25A. MakhmudovG
- 44D. MalashkevichD
- 15K. MalykhD
- 18N. NekrasovF
- 54N. PatsenkoG
- 5P. SeleznevM
- 19N. SokolovskiyD
- 78G. YakushevichD
Form going into Naftan vs Belshina
Naftan
- W1-0away to Slavia Mozyr19 September 2026
- D2-2away to Bate Borisov13 September 2026
- L0-3FC Minsk6 September 2026
- L1-5away to Dinamo Minsk2 September 2026
Belshina
- W2-0FC Minsk18 September 2026
- D1-1away to FC Vitebsk12 September 2026
- D2-2Neman6 September 2026
- D1-1away to ML Vitebsk2 September 2026
What these results say
- Naftan failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Naftan scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Naftan conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Belshina went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Belshina scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Belshina failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Naftan | 24 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 24 | 55 | -31 | 17 |
| 14 | Belshina | 23 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 23 | 40 | -17 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Naftan vs Belshina
- 23 May 2026Belshina 5–1 NaftanPremier League
- 30 September 2023Belshina 0–3 NaftanPremier League
- 14 May 2023Naftan 0–1 BelshinaPremier League
- 25 September 2021Belshina 4–0 Naftan1. Division
- 4 August 2021Naftan 0–0 Belshina1. Division
- 24 April 2021Belshina 1–1 Naftan1. Division
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.